Bitcoin Breaking Out: Is it the Right Time to Long BTC or Wait for the Bullish Confirmation?

Historically, the Bitcoin price has recorded an average gain of just a few percent in September; however, the trend is expected to change soon. The first few days of drought followed a similar trend, while the rebound that followed not only squashed the bearish possibility but triggered the probable beginning of a bull run in 2024. After breaching above the 200-day MA MA, the BTC price has confirmed the start of the next bullish cycle with potential targets beyond $100K. 

Recently, the Hamster Kombat (HMSTR) launch made huge rounds across the markets. Unfortunately, the players are pretty disappointed after the launch and this could be one of the reasons for the liquidity entering back into the star token. Therefore, the BTC price, which has soared above $65,300, needs continuation for a couple of days. The current trade setup resembles more of a corrective wave than a breakout wave and hence the traders are required to be vigilant, as a failure to achieve the targets may trigger a pullback to a potential low. 

The BTC price remains within a descending parallel channel but has broken above the horizontal consolidation. The price after multiple attempts has surged above the 200-day MA but has not yet flashed a validation of a breakout as it carries the possibility of a fakeout. The DMI levels do not display any major variation as the +Di goes parallel with -Di as a bullish reversal should have been formed in case of a breakout. This suggests there could be some possibility of a rejection, as it happened in the previous couple of attempts. 

However, the BTC price is trading in a phase with brittle resistance and support levels and hence neither the breakout nor the breakdown can be confirmed at the moment. However, a daily close above $65,500 may revive bullish hopes but a close below $64,000 may raise the alarms. 

Besides, it has been good days for the Bitcoin ETFs as the netflows surged above $365 million for the first time in the month. Probably, the institutions knew very well much before and as a result, they constantly accumulated regardless of the price variations. For instance, Blackrock now holds nearly 1.7% of the total BTC supply, around 362,000 BTC. This has been showing confidence in the token’s long-term potential as they see a bigger picture beyond the current price variations.