Avalanche (AVAX) Down Over 90% From Highs—Is the $9.35 Bottom the Start of a New Rally?

Published by

Sahana Vibhute

February 16, 2026

Avalanche (AVAX) continues to struggle as bullish momentum fades following repeated rejections near key resistance levels formed after the 2024 highs. The altcoin has failed to reclaim critical supply zones, keeping the broader market structure tilted in favor of the bears. AVAX price has already declined nearly 80% in 2025 and is down over 38% year-to-date, reflecting sustained selling pressure and thinning liquidity across the market.

After plunging more than 90% from its all-time high near $146 in 2021, traders are now questioning whether AVAX has finally approached a long-term bottom—or if further downside remains on the table. Can the price establish a base and initiate a sustainable rebound, or will the consolidation phase resolve into another bearish leg lower?

As reflected on the weekly chart, AVAX remains entrenched in a strong bearish structure across both short- and long-term timeframes. The ongoing pullback since the start of the month has dragged the price back to levels last seen in 2024, reinforcing the broader downtrend. While these levels could attract dip-buying interest and trigger a relief bounce toward $17 or even $20, the prevailing technical setup continues to favor the bears.

Bollinger Bands are now tightening sharply, signaling a contraction in volatility and hinting that a decisive move may be approaching. However, the direction of this move remains uncertain and is likely to be dictated by volume expansion. Adding to the bearish outlook, the On-Balance Volume has been trending lower, highlighting persistent distribution. Notably, OBV had climbed steadily from early 2024 until the October 2025 highs, even as price stayed weak, making the current decline in OBV a strong warning sign.

If selling pressure persists, AVAX may retest the lower band support near $6, with a deeper decline toward $2 possible if bulls fail to defend. Any rebound is likely corrective unless the price reclaims and holds above the $28–$30 range.

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