The race for altcoin ETFs is heating up fast. In a latest update, Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have further raised the odds of spot crypto ETFs being approved this year. The odds are now 90% or higher, according to them. The SEC is actively engaging with issuers, which they see as a very bullish signal.
Solana, XRP, and Litecoin are leading with a 95% chance of ETF approval. Other altcoins, such as Cardano, Dogecoin, Polkadot, Avalanche, and HBAR, are holding strong at 90% odds. SUI lags with just 60% odds due to regulatory uncertainty and the lack of a futures market.
These rising odds show growing confidence from ETF experts after the SEC recently acknowledged several 19b-4 filings and requested updates to S-1 forms. These are strong signs that things are moving forward. Polymarket bettors are also bullish as they give a 98% chance to an XRP ETF approval this year, 91% for Solana, and 71% for Dogecoin.
XRP’s ETF filing, backed by Grayscale, Bitwise, and Franklin, was acknowledged by the SEC, with a final decision due by October 17. Analysts are confident in approval, as XRP is seen as a commodity with CFTC-regulated futures. Solana’s deadline is October 10, and with similar status, it’s also a strong candidate.
Seyffart says that this is now a matter of “when, not if”. However, the timings of these launches remain uncertain. Approvals could come in the next month or two, or maybe not until October.
The SEC’s recent moves signal a pro-crypto shift, and asset managers are jumping in. They aim to repeat the huge success of spot Bitcoin ETFs. But matching Bitcoin’s momentum will not be easy.
Nate Geraci, President of the ETF Store, says spot crypto ETF approvals are very likely in 2025, including staking for spot ETH ETFs and in-kind creations/redemptions. He also expects BlackRock to join the race for Solana and XRP ETFs.
The US SEC has quietly taken a major step toward altcoin ETFs. By approving the Nasdaq Crypto US Settlement Price Index, which includes SOL, ADA, XLM, and XRP, the groundwork is being laid. Spot ETF approvals for these altcoins could now be just months away.
Potential delays or denials could stem from SEC concerns over market manipulation, custody, staking mechanics, and investor protection, or ongoing legal uncertainties like the SEC vs. Ripple case.
The SEC generally views Bitcoin and sometimes Ethereum as commodities, which simplifies approval. Altcoins face more scrutiny due to varied regulatory classifications and less established futures markets.
Yes, ongoing legal cases (e.g., Ripple), new regulatory frameworks, or changes in political leadership within the SEC or the US government could impact approval timelines.
Altcoin ETFs are expected to boost institutional adoption, increase liquidity, and potentially lead to price appreciation, though matching Bitcoin’s initial ETF momentum may be challenging.
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