Crypto asset manager 21Shares released its XRP 2026 outlook, projecting a base case target of $2.45, a bull case of $2.69, and a bear case of $1.60 if adoption slows.
The predictions follow a historic run for XRP spot ETFs in the United States.
According to 21Shares, XRP ETFs have pulled in over $1.3 billion in assets under management in their first month. The funds also recorded a 55-day streak of consecutive inflows, breaking all previous records across any asset class.
At launch, XRP’s market cap was around $113 billion. That’s roughly one-eighth of Bitcoin’s $845 billion valuation when its own ETFs went live.
21Shares pointed out that Bitcoin needed $3 billion in its first month to start moving. XRP has attracted comparable capital with a much smaller float. The result: inflows carry more weight.
On the supply side, exchange reserves have fallen to a seven-year low of 1.7 billion XRP. Institutional buying through ETFs is now running into a retail base that isn’t selling.
21Shares also highlighted Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin as a key growth driver.
RLUSD’s market cap jumped over 1,800% in under a year, rising from $72 million to $1.38 billion. The stablecoin now has more than 37,000 holders.
For comparison, Circle’s USDC grew 269% in its first year.
The outlook flagged several concerns. ETF inflows could slow or reverse if sentiment shifts. The XRP Ledger also faces competition from Solana, Canton, and other networks targeting real-world asset tokenization.
21Shares warned of a potential “sell the news” scenario if real utility doesn’t show up now that the SEC case is resolved.
XRP is currently trading at $1.93, up 2.31% over the last 24 hours.
Sustained ETF demand, rising institutional use, low exchange supply, and growth in Ripple’s payments and stablecoin ecosystem could drive upside.
ETF inflows increase demand from long-term investors, reducing available supply and making price forecasts more sensitive to capital movements.
Yes. Regulatory clarity, ETFs, and growing institutional participation make XRP’s current cycle structurally stronger than past speculative rallies.
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