Ripple Lawsuit Ruling: Will the SEC Appeal Block Bitwise’s XRP ETF?

Leading asset management firm Bitwise has made headlines in the cryptocurrency world by filing for registration for a Delaware statutory trust on September 30. This is a significant move towards launching an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) and has sparked enthusiasm among investors eagerly awaiting the arrival of an XRP ETF in the U.S. market.

However, the recent SEC appeal to overturn the 2023 ruling raises questions about the future of this XRP ETF. Will the SEC’s actions hinder progress? Let’s explore.

SEC vs. Ripple: Expert Insights

Attorney Fred Rispoli in a latest podcast on Thinking Crypto has discussed the impact of SEC vs Ripple’s case on crypto regulation. While the SEC’s appeal has hurt XRP, leaving the community anxious, Fred has also shed light on how this case could impact the broader crypto regulation for other exchanges as well. 

Fred has shared his views that if the SEC triumphs in the second circuit, then the impact will not be just on XRP holders, but it is going to be bad for Coinbase, Kraken, Binance, and other exchanges as well, and that they’re going to try and use that going forward.

Can Ripple Really Win?

When asked about the chances of success regarding programmatic sales, Rispoli explained that the outcome largely depends on the judges assigned to the case. If the panel typically sides with the government, the SEC’s chances could rise to 70-80%. On the other hand, if the panel is more neutral or favors Ripple, the odds could shift significantly in Ripple’s favor, potentially to 70-30.

Rispoli also noted that if Ripple assembles a strong panel, they might succeed in overturning their previous losses through a cross-appeal. Regarding the timeline, he expressed skepticism about getting a ruling from the Second Circuit before January 2026.

However, he emphasized that Judge Torres’s order currently stands as law, allowing the crypto community to operate with some certainty.

“And so that’s really the best bet is to push forward on the legislative front. And…the good news is that from now until then, until that 2026 timeframe, Judge Torres’s order is what is the law. And so everybody can be comfortable following that,”

He underscored that this appeal shouldn’t stand as too much of an obstacle because it’s baked in and now everybody in the crypto world knows the SEC is hostile. So if Ripple’s not going to make it, he asserted that it is starting to be more of a business model issue than the SEC issue. He stated that SEC is no longer just targeting Ripple, they’re targeting everybody. 

Will The SEC Block Bitwise’s XRP ETF?

Regarding Bitwise’s XRP ETF filing, Rispoli expressed optimism. When asked if the SEC could block the ETF based on the appeal, he stated there was no valid reason for denial, especially since Judge Torres’s ruling is currently the law of the land.

However, he cautioned that delays could occur due to the SEC’s unpredictable nature and political motivations. While he expects a long journey for the XRP ETF, he acknowledged that Judge Torres’s ruling clarifies that XRP itself is not a security.

Rispoli concluded by discussing the future of regulatory oversight. He suggested that everything could change with a new regime, speculating that Gary Gensler is unlikely to remain SEC chair, regardless of the presidential election’s outcome.

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