As the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) asked the crypto ETF issuers to withdraw their 19b-4 filings, Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas has raised the odds of crypto ETF approval to 100%. He said, now that ETF applications only need to have their S-1 registration statement, 19b-4 filings have become void.
In mid-2025, Balchunas and James Seyffart, Bloomberg experts, increased their odds to 90% to 95% for crypto ETFs. But now, with the SEC’s new update, they further pushed the odds to 100%.
Balchunas said that with the generic listing standards in place, the 19b-4 filings and their timeline of 240 days have become irrelevant. He said, applicants only require an S-1 filing and official approval by the SEC’s Division of Corporation Finance.
Balchunas wrote, “Honestly, the odds are really 100% now. Generic listing standards make the 19b-4s and their ‘clock’ meaningless. That just leaves the S-1s waiting for formal green light from Corp Finance. And they just submitted amendment #4 for Solana. The baby could come any day. Be ready.”
Three crypto ETFs, Litecoin, XRP, and Solana, with an S-1 filing, have their decision deadline scheduled for this week in October. Starting from October 2, Canary, Grayscale, and Coinshares will have their fate sealed for the Litecoin ETF.
Meanwhile, global companies, including Grayscale, VanEck, 21Shares, Canary, Bitwise, Franklin, and Fidelity, are scheduled for October 10 for their Solana ETF applications to be reviewed by the SEC.
Moreover, XRP ETF applicants, including Grayscale, Bitwise, Canary, 21Shares, WisdomTree, Coinshares, and Franklin, will receive the SEC’s decision on October 17.
Watching these crypto ETF deadlines closely, Balchunas said it will be a wild month. Nate Geraci, President at Nova Dius Wealth, also said it will be an enormous week for spot crypto ETFs. He wrote, “SEC final deadlines approaching on numerous filings. Starts this week with a deadline on the Canary spot LTC ETF. Will be followed by decisions on SOL, DOGE, XRP, ADA, & HBAR ETFs (though SEC can approve any or all of these whenever).
It signals that the 19b-4 rule-change process and its long timeline are no longer needed, streamlining approval to the final S-1 registration statement step.
Applicants now only need the formal approval for their S-1 registration statement from the SEC’s Division of Corporation Finance, making the process faster.
Decisions for the Litecoin ETF applications from issuers like Canary, Grayscale, and Coinshares are scheduled to begin this week, starting on October 2.
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