Will the Structure Market Bill (Clarity Act) Pass in May? What Experts Say!

The CLARITY Act, America’s most ambitious attempt to create a proper regulatory structure for digital assets, is approaching its final, make-or-break moment. And the question everyone in crypto space is asking: Will May 2026 finally be the month it actually happens?

Here’s what Industry experts and prediction markets say about it.

CLARITY Act is “in the Red Zone”

Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott said the CLARITY Act is “in the red zone,” meaning the bill is close to moving forward. He said it could reach committee markup in May, followed by a possible Senate floor vote in June or July.

Scott also said he expects the bill to reach the President’s desk this summer, showing growing momentum in Washington.

Other lawmakers also sounded confident. At the Bitcoin 2026 Conference, Senator Cynthia Lummis said crypto market structure legislation will be marked up in May, adding,

“We are gonna get it to the finish line.”

Senator Tillis also backed the bill and urged leaders to “move forward.”

Meanwhile, Senator Bernie Moreno warned that missing the end of May deadline could delay the bill for a long time, as the political calendar becomes tighter later this year.

Industry Experts Say Time Is Running Out

While the U.S. senators are optimistic about the bill, industry voices are also closely watching the timeline.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse recently shifted his expectations from April to May, warning that the bill has only a few weeks left to move forward. 

“If it doesn’t pass now… it’s NOT HAPPENING anytime soon.”

Polymarket now shows a 46% chance of the bill being signed in 2026, down sharply from 82% in February. 

Meanwhile, Kalshi gives only a 19% chance of approval before July and a 37% chance before August.

Key Hurdle For Passing the Clarity Act

The Clarity Act is expected to move forward in May, but a few important issues remain.

• Stablecoin Yield Issues Largely Resolved

Passive yield, where users earn money just by holding stablecoins, may be banned. But reward programs linked to activity are still allowed, which is good for current stablecoin projects.

• Conflict for Trump To Sign Due to the Coin Act

Democrats want to ban top officials, lawmakers, and their families from owning or profiting from crypto while in office. Many see this as targeting Trump-linked projects like WLFI and the TRUMP memecoin.

However, Democrats may demand that the Coin Act be passed; otherwise, they won’t vote yes. This may prevent Trump from signing the Clarity Act, making it a major hurdle for the bill.

Overall, the crypto industry remains hopeful.

Key Steps Needed to Sign the CLARITY Act

Most expect the next major step to be a Senate Banking Committee markup around the week of May 11.

Before reaching President Trump’s desk, the bill still faces five key hurdles: committee approval, a 60-vote Senate floor vote, merging with the Senate Agriculture version passed in January, aligning with the House version passed last July, and final presidential approval.