The US economy grew just 0.7% in Q4 2025. That number, revised down from 1.4% by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, is already trending on X and CNN is calling it “far weaker than previously reported.” With the FOMC meeting four days away on March 17-18, crypto traders have one question: does this change anything for Bitcoin?
The short answer is not yet. But the longer answer is more interesting.
The GDP collapse from Q3’s 4.4% pace to 0.7% in Q4 was driven by weaker exports, consumer services, government spending, and investment. A government shutdown in October and November alone knocked roughly one percentage point off growth.
Annual 2025 GDP came in at a revised 2.1%.
Yet inflation isn’t cooperating. February CPI landed at 2.4%, exactly in line with expectations. This morning, the BEA confirmed core PCE held at 3.1% in January, still well above the Fed’s 2% target. The Fed has no clean path to cut rates with prices still sticky, even as growth slows sharply.
That combination – slowing growth, stubborn inflation – is exactly what’s driving the interest in the term “stagflation 2026” this week.
With few days until the FOMC meeting, FedWatch data shows a 99.2% probability the Fed holds rates unchanged at 350-375 bps. That part seems settled.
What isn’t settled is what comes next. The GDP revision is shifting the timeline for when rate cuts might actually arrive, and traders everywhere are recalculating.
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Historically, Fed rate cuts are bullish for Bitcoin. Lower rates push investors toward risk assets, weaken the dollar, and increase appetite for alternatives to traditional finance. The longer the Fed holds while growth weakens, the stronger the eventual case for cuts becomes.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $73,537, up 4.42% on the day, holding its ground even as equity markets are dipping. That resilience, against a backdrop of weak growth and the US-Israel-Iran war, is what crypto traders are paying attention to right now.
The March 17-18 meeting is unlikely to deliver a cut. But with Q4 GDP at 0.7% and the economy slowing faster than expected, the question is not exactly whether the Fed cuts in 2026 – it is when.
And when that cut comes, Bitcoin will be watching.
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