The crypto market is once again on edge, and this time, it’s not about regulations or interest rates — it’s about war. As tensions heat up between Israel and Iran, a new fear is emerging: What if the United States gets directly involved?
So, how will the crypto market react if the US joins the Israel-Iran War?
If the U.S. steps into the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict, things could get much worse for global markets, especially crypto. With American troops already placed in the Middle East and rising concerns about Iran’s nuclear goal, this could turn into a large-scale geopolitical crisis.
Already, U.S. President Donald Trump has called on people living in Tehran, Iran’s capital, to leave the city immediately.
Posting this on Truth Social, Trump said Iran should have agreed to the deal he once proposed, calling the situation a “waste of human life.” He firmly stated, “Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.”
On Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction platform, the chances of U.S. military action against Iran before August surged by 36% in just one day, now standing at 62%.
At the same time, the Israel-Iran conflict is spreading online. Iran’s largest crypto exchange, Nobitex, was recently hacked, losing $48 million in USDT.
A cyber group linked to Israel, known as Gonjeshke Darande or “Predatory Sparrow,” has claimed responsibility for the attack.
A U.S. entry would likely trigger a fresh wave of panic selling in the crypto world. Experts warn Bitcoin could quickly lose 10% to 20% of its value, dragging down Ethereum and other altcoins along with it.
We already got a taste of that in June, when Israeli strikes caused Bitcoin to dip 4.5% in one day, wiping out billions in market value. Even the Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped from 65 to 48.
Not all is doom and gloom. If a ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough happens, Bitcoin has the potential to bounce back within weeks, just like it did after the Russia-Ukraine war escalated.
But until then, the market is likely to remain fragile.
The crypto market is slightly down today, with its capitalization decreasing by about 2.3%. While major coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum are mostly unchanged, some altcoins have seen small dips. Geopolitical tensions, specifically the Israel-Iran conflict and potential U.S. involvement, continue to weigh on market sentiment.
If the U.S. directly enters the conflict, experts warn it would likely trigger widespread panic selling in the crypto market, potentially causing Bitcoin to drop 10% to 20%, dragging down Ethereum and other altcoins.
In June, Israeli strikes caused Bitcoin to dip 4.5% in one day, wiping out billions in market value and causing the Crypto Fear & Greed Index to drop significantly from 65 to 48.
If a ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough occurs between Israel and Iran, Bitcoin has the potential to rebound within weeks, similar to its recovery after the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war, easing market fragility.
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