Will SEC Approve Bitcoin ETF in the Next 7 Days? Exploring the Probability

Bitcoin has commenced 2024 on a bullish note, surpassing the $45,000 mark for the first time since April 2022, marking a 6% increase in value. This rise is attributed to growing anticipation around the potential approval of spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Presently valued at $45,364.58, Bitcoin’s surge is fueled by optimism regarding its mainstream acceptance. However, many analysts warn of a potential price correction post ETF approval, highlighting the need to monitor Bitcoin’s response to regulatory changes in the coming days. 

SEC’s Bitcoin ETF Review: Approaching Decision Day

The latest update on the much-anticipated spot Bitcoin ETF revolves around the ongoing review of the S-1 forms submitted by various entities aiming for the ETF before the December 29, 2023 deadline. Eleanor Terrett from Fox Business highlighted that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is still examining the changes made to these forms, setting the stage for a potential approval.

This review process is crucial, signaling a step closer toward potential approval of the first-ever spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States. Notable contenders in this race include major entities like BlackRock, Invesco, Valkyrie, and others, all vying for the approval of a Bitcoin ETF.

The SEC’s protocol in past approvals hints at a potential timeline for this decision. Terrett’s insights indicate that based on previous approval timelines, the most likely window for the SEC to greenlight the Bitcoin ETF is January 9 or 10, 2024. However, given the regulatory process’s intricacies and the holiday break, the SEC staff being off from December 29, 2023, the final approval might slightly extend into the early days of that week.

Industry Expectations Are Mixed, Even It Called Early?

Despite the initial optimism, it seems less probable for the Bitcoin ETF to secure approval before January 6, 2024. However, this delay hasn’t hindered Bitcoin’s momentum, as it initiated the year with an impressive nearly 5% price surge within 24 hours. This recent uptick in Bitcoin’s value adds to the mounting anticipation surrounding the potential ETF approval, fueling optimism among investors and enthusiasts eager for Bitcoin’s breakthrough into the ETF market.

Analysts anticipate a Bitcoin ETF approval could attract substantial investments, allowing investors to access Bitcoin without direct ownership. However, doubts persist about a significant immediate price surge due to recent struggles in the crypto space, including regulatory challenges and corporate failures, which dampened enthusiasm.

Despite hopes for a recovery in 2023, Bitcoin’s rebound didn’t attract extensive investment or trade as seen in previous highs, partly due to high-interest rates restricting investment. VanEck’s Director of Digital Assets Gabor Gurbacs, foresees an initial inflow of a few hundred million dollars into the ETF, with a stronger long-term impact upon its launch.