Don’t Expect an Ethereum ETF Boom Overnight: Here’s Why

Think SEC has fully approved ETH ETFs? Well, you’re wrong.

Ethereum Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) are causing quite a stir in the crypto space. But let’s set the record straight: while the SEC has given the nod to Form 19b-4 for eight Ethereum ETF issuers, including big names like BlackRock and Fidelity, full approval is still pending. This news has sparked both excitement and caution in the crypto sphere, prompting many to wonder when Ethereum (ETH) will soar to new heights.

One Step Forward, Not Quite There Yet

Key Factors for Approval

19b-4s Approved, Not S-1s

The recent green light from the SEC only covers Form 19b-4, not the more comprehensive S-1 registration statements. This means progress is underway, but the final thumbs-up everyone’s waiting for hasn’t arrived. Investors are optimistic but mindful that the crucial approvals are still in the pipeline. As @JSeyff aptly puts it,

“TO BE CLEAR: This does not mean they will begin trading tomorrow. This is just 19b-4 approval. Also needs to be approval on the S-1 documents which is going to take time” ~ 

Navigating Uncertainty

Unlike Bitcoin Spot ETFs, which followed a different path to approval, the Ethereum ETF got the go-ahead via the Division of Trading and Markets with “delegated authority.” But this doesn’t rule out potential challenges within a 10-day window from commissioners, adding uncertainty.

And let’s not forget the looming possibility of political hurdles, keeping the finality of approval up in the air.

Keeping Expectations in Check: Listing ≠ Buying

While the approval to list Ethereum ETFs marks a significant milestone, it’s crucial to understand that it doesn’t mean immediate buying opportunities. This distinction has kept a lid on a major price surge so far, as institutional investors await the green light for ETH trading. Once that happens, a flood of institutional investment is expected to kickstart a bullish run.

But regulatory complexities and political dynamics are slowing the process, prompting cautious optimism amidst broader uncertainties.

Price Predictions

On the technical front, Ethereum has overcome numerous hurdles, buoyed by relatively low network fees that could spur more activity. However, surpassing the $4,000 valuation mark might take time.

History reminds us that ETF approvals don’t always lead to an instant surge; Bitcoin experienced a brief dip after spot Bitcoin ETFs got the green light earlier this year before bouncing back.

Balancing Optimism with Reality

Despite Ethereum educator Sassal’s confidence that the ETF approval isn’t fully priced in yet, the market remains cautiously optimistic. While Ethereum has shown resilience this month, the full impact of the ETF approval might take a while to materialize. Recent market movements, like a brief 1.2% dip in Bitcoin’s price followed by a 5% rally in cryptocurrencies like Pepe after the news, highlight the complex factors at play.

What’s Next?

VanEck has submitted a revised S-1 with the SEC, with analysts predicting clearance in the coming weeks to months. Crypto analyst Zach Rynes believes that once ETF inflows start, Ether prices will see a significant boost.

The SEC’s move on Ethereum ETFs is a positive step, but will it be enough to fuel a major price surge? Share your thoughts.