Real Vision founder Raoul Pal said the crypto market’s weakness isn’t a sign the bull run is over. It just hasn’t started yet. The macro investor gave a specific timeline: crypto prices should start moving by end of February 2026.
But first, he explained what’s been holding the market back in a recent video on Savvy Finance.
Pal called the October 10th crash the largest crypto liquidation event in history. It started on Binance and spread across Asian exchanges.
“October the 10th was a crypto-specific event where everything broke basically on Binance and a few of the Asian exchanges and everybody got liquidated. The largest liquidation event in history and the market has not recovered from that yet,” he said.
Market maker APIs broke during the sell-off. Automated liquidations kept firing with no buyers on the other side. Pal believes exchanges absorbed billions in positions to stop a full collapse. They’re now slowly selling that inventory, which explains the constant downward pressure.
Pal pointed out that gold reacts to financial conditions immediately. Crypto takes about 180 days to catch up.
Right now, gold is at all-time highs. So are silver, copper, and the S&P 500. The US dollar has dropped around 13% in the past year.
Crypto was the worst-performing major asset class during all of this. Pal said the gap isn’t about macro weakness, but about the October damage that still hasn’t healed.
Midterm elections hit in November 2026. The administration needs the economy to feel stronger before voters head to the polls.
Pal expects aggressive moves: tax breaks, fiscal stimulus, and new rules letting banks use more leverage. On the regulatory side, the Stability Act is moving fast, and a crypto market structure bill is working through the Senate.
Pal didn’t promise anything. Another government shutdown or tariff issues could delay things.
“Nothing is a certainty. Everything is a probability,” he said.
Major risks include global recessions, tighter crypto regulations, declining liquidity, or a sustained breakdown below key support levels.
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