When Will Bitcoin Bottom Out? On-Chain Data Has a Surprising Answer

Most traders are still waiting for Bitcoin to drop further. But the on-chain data is telling a very different story from what most people read during the crash.

According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, Bitcoin’s long-term holders did not sell as aggressively as the charts suggested. In the 2025 cycle, LTHs spent 15.1M BTC in total, just below the 15.3M BTC spent during the 2021 bull run. Prior cycles saw 7.3M and 13.6M BTC spent respectively.

This comes as Bitcoin trades at $72,419, up 2.95% on the day, even as Brent crude hit $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022 and equity markets sold off on escalating Middle East tensions – a macro backdrop that would historically have dragged crypto lower with it.

The Charts Were Misleading

Part of the confusion came from Coinbase. The exchange moved approximately 800,000 BTC internally, and most of it was miscategorised as LTH supply in on-chain data. Darkfost notes that once those internal transfers are stripped out, actual long-term holder selling was likely even lower than the headline number suggests.

In other words, the panic may have been based on distorted data.

Also Read: Decoupling Finally? Why Crypto Is Up 2.57% While Stocks Are Down Today

Bitcoin’s Ownership Structure Is Changing

There’s a deeper shift happening that most retail traders aren’t factoring in. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, launched in January 2024, now hold around 1.3M BTC – roughly 6.7% of total supply. Digital asset treasury companies, including Strategy, collectively hold another 1.1M BTC, nearly 5% of supply.

These are not holders who sell on red days.

Darkfost points out that these new institutional participants are fundamentally changing what it means to be a long-term holder, and over time their growing presence could structurally reduce selling pressure across cycles.

Do You Wait for the Bottom or Do You Buy Now?

Crypto analyst Jelle has a clear view on this. During the last bull run, he began scaling out early and accelerated selling between $100K and $120K without ever calling the top.

He applies the same logic on the way down.

“I don’t care to be a hero, or to look cool by calling the bottom – I’m just here to make money,” he said, adding that his approach is to slowly build long-term exposure after a certain threshold, then ramp up buying once the bottom confirms.

The data and the strategy are pointing in the same direction.

If the data holds, the bigger risk may not be buying too early – it may be waiting for a bottom that the charts already confirmed.