Economic experts Tomas, in a recent post on the X platform, has highlighted a critical market signal that could drive Bitcoin and other risk assets much higher this summer.
According to the expert, the sharp decline in the US Dollar Index seen in Q1 historically triggers strong rallies in assets like Bitcoin, typically with a three-month lag.
He predicts that if this pattern holds, Bitcoin could reach the range of $150,000 to $200,000 in the coming months.
Curious to know more? Read on!
Here’s what the data shows.
At the beginning of this year, the US Dollar index was $108.512. In the first quarter of this year, the index slipped by no fewer than 3.93%. In the previous month, it declined by over 4.36%. Currently, the index sits at $100.424.
This shows that the US dollar has weakened a lot in recent months, specifically in the first quarter of 2025.
Tomas notes that historically, a weaker dollar usually leads to higher prices for risk assets like Bitcoin and stocks, though with a delay ( often around three months).
On May 8, with a single-day surge of 6.46%, the Bitcoin market once again broke the crucial mark of $100K.
At the start of this month, the BTC price was $94,147.61. So far this month, the BTC market has jumped nearly 10.2%. Even though in the early days of this month, the market witnessed severe volatility (a rise of around 2.84% between May 1 and 2 and a fall of 2.68% between May 3 and 4), since May 5, it has grown by at least 10.23%.
In the last seven days alone, the Bitcoin price has witnessed an impressive rise of 7.8%.
Tomas states that the recent rise of Bitcoin could be the early sign of the BTC-Dollar Index correlation pattern playing out.
The expert forecasts that if the usual inverse relationship between Bitcoin and the US Dollar index holds, the BTC price could reach the range of $150K to $200K by this summer.
Tomas notes that the same pattern might also boost US stock indices, although the link is less precise than with Bitcoin.
In the first quarter of 2025, the S&P 500 index registered a notable drop of 4.96%. In the previous month, the market recorded a minor decline of 0.54%. Since the start of this month, it has experienced a small surge of 0.96%.
Likewise, in April, the Nasdaq 100 index reported a rise of 1.92%. So far this month, the index has jumped 0.95% to $20,062.45.
Meanwhile, the expert emphasises that gold often moves in sync with the dollar, not in the opposite direction.
2025 has been a fantastic year for gold. In Q1 2025, the gold price saw an enviable growth of no fewer than 19.16%. In the previous month, the price reported a rise of at least 5.25%. So far this month, the market has shown a minimal growth of 1.25%.
However, Tomas warns that since the dollar has already weakened, gold may have already priced in most of its gains. If the dollar starts to recover, gold could face some downside.
Tomas’s analysis points to a familiar and powerful pattern – when the dollar drops, Bitcoin tends to rise. And with the dollar already down sharply, he believes the stage is set for a potential BTC surge in the months ahead.
Could Bitcoin hit $150K or even $200K this summer? If the pattern holds, we may not have to wait long to find out.
A weaker dollar historically leads to higher Bitcoin prices about three months later, as investors seek alternative assets.
A weaker dollar tends to lift stocks, but gold often moves in sync with the dollar, so its gains may already be priced in.
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