Experts Claim 98.7% Chance of Bitcoin ETF Approval; But Why is Wall Street Cautious?

In the crypto space, everything or anything is possible; that’s why odds and predictions carry weight. Yet, when esteemed XRP Attorney John Deaton resonates with investor Mike Alfred’s forecast, suggesting an astonishing 98.7% chance of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval, ears perk up across the industry.

What’s this all about? Read on!

Unified Optimism

Representing 75,000 XRP holders, Deaton echoed Alfred’s confidence, citing recent amendments made by major players—BlackRock, Ark 21Shares, and WisdomTree—as the majority of them aligning their S-1 filings with a cash redemptions model, signaling a potential breakthrough for the digital asset space.

In a straightforward “Agreed” nod to Alfred’s prediction, Deaton, in his X post, added weight to the mounting optimism. This alignment with industry projections emphasizes the impact of recent amendments, boosting the odds of a green light from the SEC. 

Wall Street Remains Cautious

While Alfred remains confidently bullish on approval before January 10, Wall Street appears cautiously optimistic, reflected in the undervalued January call options for Bitcoin miners. Bloomberg analysts have maintained a steady 90% likelihood for the past two months. Nonetheless, experts increasingly lean toward a green signal as the SEC’s critical decision day approaches.

On the higher side, Trader Bob Loukas isn’t mincing words, expressing an unwavering 99.9% certainty in the ETF’s fate.

So Who Do We Believe?

This week is brimming with anticipation, especially with major players like Ark 21Shares, BlackRock, and WisdomTree diligently tweaking their S-1 filings to embrace cash creation models. While analysts James Seyffart and Scott Johnsson are cautiously skeptical about an immediate approval, Seyffart hints at a potential green light between January 8-10, given the SEC’s historical tendency to act just before deadlines, possibly including essential amendments.

The crypto sphere braces for a defining moment, eagerly awaiting the SEC’s call on Bitcoin ETFs. If approved, this could herald a game-changing transformation in the realm of digital assets. At the same time, if denied, this could be worse than earlier crypto crashes, as predicted by experts. 

We’re Praying for a Miracle!

As prices of key cryptocurrencies Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and XRP fell, the crypto market cap fell 2.58% to $1.56 trillion in 24 hours. It will be interesting to see the ETF charm rolling in January. BTC is struggling to maintain the critical level of $42K and is expected to fall by $40K in the coming days as a mark of a short-term correction. Is it a good or bad sign? Tell us.