Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has raised fresh concerns about the future of cryptography in the age of quantum computing. Vitalik warns that quantum computers could break today’s cryptography by around 2040, with roughly a 20% chance that this could happen before 2030.
Cryptography isn’t just about passwords or private emails, it secures the entire digital economy. From online banking to cryptocurrency wallets and smart contracts, all rely on algorithms designed to resist attacks from classical computers.
A powerful quantum machine could, however, crack these defenses far faster, putting everything from financial assets to personal data at risk.
Ian Miers explained that the real issue isn’t just the possibility of a future attacker decrypting old data. Instead, the deeper concern is soundness, ensuring that cryptographic systems, including blockchains, remain trustworthy even against the power of quantum computing.
He pointed out that STARKs, a cryptographic proof system, may be pushed to evolve into more zero-knowledge (zk) structures. This shift could come as they compete with post-quantum sound and zk schemes, but he left an open question: Will those incentives be enough to ensure long-term safety?
Responding to Miers, Vitalik Buterin highlighted predictions from forecasting platform Metaculus. According to its data, the median estimate for when quantum computers could break today’s cryptography is 2040, though there is about a 20% chance this happens before 2030.
This reminder underscores that while the threat may not feel immediate, it’s close enough on the horizon to demand serious attention today.
Despite the risks, the crypto community is not standing still. Researchers are already working on post-quantum cryptography, new algorithms designed to survive quantum attacks.
At the same time, zk-proofs and STARKs continue to evolve, showing promise for more resilient systems.
Quantum computers could break the cryptography securing blockchains and digital wallets by 2040, with a 20% chance it happens before 2030, risking all digital assets.
Soundness ensures cryptographic systems like blockchains remain trustworthy and secure even against the superior processing power of future quantum computers.
Researchers are developing post-quantum cryptography and advancing zero-knowledge proof systems like STARKs to create quantum-resistant algorithms and blockchains.
No. Current crypto like Bitcoin and Ethereum rely on classical cryptography. The community is actively working on post-quantum solutions to future-proof digital assets.
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