VanEck’s Ethereum Layer-2 Prediction: $1 Trillion by 2030

VanEck, the global investment manager, has recently released its $1 trillion base case for Ethereum’s Layer-2 (L2) solutions by 2030. The L2 solutions are expected to surpass the main blockchain in revenue generation for addressing scalability issues. 

Technologies like ZKUs (zero-knowledge roll-ups) and ORUs (optimistic roll-ups) are to process transactions off the main blockchain. This would enable L2s to outperform Ethereum’s main blockchain. 

Role of Airdrop in Ethereum L2 Solutions Success

Despite the optimism about L2s, VanEck has cautioned about most L2 tokens, stating that they are not the primary currency within the cryptocurrency ecosystem. Some notable L2 solutions that are recognized for their success due to successful ecosystems and strategic airdrops are Arbritrum, Blast, and Optimism. 

According to DefiLlama data, Arbitrum ranks fifth in total value locked ($3.17 billion), Blast sixth ($1.3 billion), and Optimism eleventh ($952.69 million). 

The criteria for evaluating the success of L2 are costs of the transaction, user experience, assumptions of trust, the size of the ecosystem, and of course, the developer experience. 

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin also revisits the layer-3 (L3) solutions concept. He emphasized the importance of different layers serving distinct purposes for effective layering.

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How will Ethereum L2 Solve Scalibility?

The VanEck report highlights the EIP-4844 upgrade, which would “Blob Space” to reduce data posting costs significantly, thereby benefiting L2 operations financially.

Various revenue models of L2 solutions are explored as well. It has been identified that transaction sequencing would be the primary source of income along with on-chain and off-chain cost structures. 

Total Value Locked (TVL) within Ethereum Ecosystem

By 2030, a significant transaction value portion and TVL of L2s are expected to be captured. This would be partly driven by Maximal Extractable Value or MEV’s potential in augmenting revenues.

VanEck foresees a much broader application of blockchain technology that will be beyond finance. It will include gaming, social media, and infrastructure, denoting a future with L2s becoming the central components of the global blockchain ecosystem.