VanEck Says $1 Million Bitcoin Is The Base Case — Here Is What The Data Says

Bitcoin is slowly regaining momentum as investors once again look toward the $100,000 milestone. After dropping from its late-2025 high of $126,000, BTC is now trading near $81,000, supported by improving sentiment, growing enthusiasm around the U.S. CLARITY Act, and strong institutional demand. 

Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw massive $2.44 billion inflows in April 2026 alone, marking the strongest month since the 2025 peak. On May 6, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total net inflow of $46.33 million, marking the fifth consecutive day of net inflows. 

VanEck’s Matthew Sigel Predicts $1 Million Bitcoin

Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, made one of the boldest predictions yet, saying Bitcoin reaching $1 million is now the firm’s “base case.”

“Bitcoin going up for us is the base case. We think this asset is going to reach a million dollars over the next several years,” Sigel said during a CNBC interview.

To explain his outlook, Sigel compared Bitcoin to the video game industry. He noted that gaming was once seen as something mainly for kids, but today it is mainstream across all age groups, even mentioning that Elon Musk plays video games. According to Sigel, Bitcoin is following a similar path toward mass adoption.

“People don’t quit Bitcoin,” he said, pointing to growing interest from younger investors and the fact that central banks are now beginning to hold Bitcoin reserves. He described Bitcoin as a long-term “mega trend,” although he warned that the asset will remain highly volatile along the way.

Sigel believes Bitcoin could potentially reach $1 million within five years if adoption keeps accelerating.

On-Chain Analysis Points to $93K Next

According to CryptoQuant researchers, Bitcoin’s next major target could be $93,000 due to a key CME gap. BTC recently surged close to $83,000 as the total crypto market cap jumped to $2.73 trillion. Moreover, a sharp 12% crash in oil prices and growing optimism around a possible U.S.-Iran peace deal also added fresh fuel to the crypto rally.