US CPI Report Today [Live] Updates

U.S. January CPI came in softer than forecast at +2.4% year-over-year (consensus: +2.5%), with monthly headline at +0.2% (vs. +0.3%). Core CPI ex-food/energy matched expectations at +0.3% monthly. The downside surprise fuels bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts as early as March, boosting risk assets. Bitcoin surged 3% post-release, signaling renewed optimism for crypto amid easing inflation pressures. Markets eye next week’s FOMC for clues.

Bitcoin is trading between two major liquidity areas. On the upside, a heavy cluster of short liquidations sits between $69,000 and $74,000. A move into this zone could trigger forced buying and accelerate momentum. On the downside, a strong pocket of long liquidations rests between $64,000 and $66,000. A drop into that range may spark quick selling pressure as positions get wiped out.

Bitcoin has just gone through one of the largest capitulation events in its history, according to data from CryptoQuant. The latest sell-off ranks among the top three to five biggest realized loss events ever recorded.The scale of losses is being compared to the 2021 market crash, showing widespread panic selling. In past cycles, such major capitulations have often signaled late-stage fear before market stabilization.

The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) will play a key role in shaping expectations around interest rates. Markets expect inflation to slow to around 2.5% year-on-year. However, despite the projected cooling, futures data suggests the chances of an immediate rate cut from the Federal Reserve remain low for now.

The January inflation report lands Friday morning, and traders are treating it like a key policy event. CPI is expected at 2.5% year-on-year, which would bring inflation back to May 2025 levels despite tariff measures introduced under Donald Trump. A softer reading could lift rate-cut hopes and support Bitcoin and broader crypto. But a hotter print may push the dollar and yields higher, putting pressure on risk assets.

Wall Street expects a mixed inflation report for January. Headline CPI is projected at 0.26% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year, slightly lower than December’s 0.31% and 2.7%.However, core CPI is expected to rise 0.34% monthly, up from 0.24% in December, though the yearly rate may ease to 2.5%. Forecasts for core remain widely split, showing uncertainty around seasonal effects and tariff-related price pressures.

There’s a simple way to gauge where inflation may head. When oil prices fall compared to the previous month, CPI usually comes in lower than expected. When oil prices rise, inflation tends to surprise on the upside. Since oil prices increased in January, the upcoming CPI report is likely to show higher-than-expected inflation, which could impact market sentiment.