US CPI Released: October Inflation Beats Expectations

U.S. inflation came in hotter than economists expected in October, with headline CPI rising 0.4% month-on-month, above the 0.3% forecast. Core CPI also increased 0.3%, beating the 0.2% expectation. 

This has pressured markets, with Bitcoin falling below $73,500 as the odds of a Fed rate hike surged.

October CPI Comes in Hotter Than Expected

The latest CPI data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed headline inflation rising 0.4% in October, compared with economists’ expectations for a 0.3% increase.

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.3% month-on-month, above the 0.2% forecast. The figure matched the monthly increase recorded in September.

Meanwhile, the BLS has not released an official year-over-year CPI rate for October because the 43-day government shutdown in 2025 left it without the October 2025 data needed to make the annual comparison.

Hot CPI Lifts Fed Rate Hike Bets

The stronger CPI reading quickly shifted attention to the Federal Reserve’s next policy decision. After the data release, the CME FedWatch Tool showed the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike rising from 84% to 99%.

Speaking at the Bank of England Watchers Conference, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would support raising interest rates by 25 basis points to 4%–4.25% in December.

He also warned that if core inflation rose above 0.3%, the Fed could consider a larger 50-basis-point hike. 

The hotter reading strengthened the case for tighter monetary policy and increased attention on the Fed’s December decision.