Bitcoin Price Prediction: Will Lower CPI Data Trigger a Bull Rally?

The crypto market is holding its breath as investors wait for the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, set for release on February 12. With Bitcoin already hovering near key levels, this report could be the trigger for its next big move. While most expect inflation to stay steady, Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, believes there’s a real chance it could come in lower than expected. If that happens, Bitcoin might be in for a strong rally – possibly one that pushes it closer to its all-time high.

But what if the numbers disappoint? Could the market struggle instead? Here’s what to watch for.

Is Inflation Cooling Faster Than Expected?

Thielen noted that most market participants expect a 2.9% year-over-year (YoY) inflation rate, with core inflation – excluding food and gas – projected at 3.1%.

However, the US Truflation Inflation Index, a real-time tracker, has already dropped from 3.0% to 2.1%. This suggests inflation might be falling faster than experts anticipate.

“If CPI surprises to the downside at 2.7% or 2.8%, Bitcoin could see a relief rally,” Thielen explained. He pointed out that in January, Bitcoin surged by $10,000 when the inflation report came in at 2.9%, despite fears of rising prices.

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Bitcoin Could Gain Another $10K

Bitcoin is currently trading around $96,170, showing a slight decline over the past week. But if another $10,000 surge happens—similar to January—it could push Bitcoin close to its all-time high of $109,000.

Meanwhile, crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe remains optimistic, suggesting Bitcoin could reach new highs soon, especially with gold continuing to hit record levels.

A recent poll by analyst Benjamin Cowen found that 51.2% of respondents expect Bitcoin to rise after the CPI report.

The next 24 hours could be crucial. If inflation comes in lower than expected, Bitcoin may rally again. However, if the data disappoints, the market could face new challenges.

A surprise dip in inflation could send Bitcoin soaring, but if numbers disappoint, the market may be in for a rough ride.

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