U.S. CPI Report to Decide Crypto’s Next Move – Will the Fed Hold Back?

Bitcoin stayed steady above $105,000 on Monday as investors turned cautious ahead of key U.S. inflation data. While price movement was quiet, strong ETF demand and institutional inflows helped maintain support. Altcoins saw mixed action, with XRP jumping 3%, Solana and Avalanche ticking higher, but BNB and Dogecoin slipping by around 2%.

All eyes are on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data for May, which could shape market sentiment and impact the Federal Reserve’s next move. At the same time, major updates on crypto regulation, including a spot Litecoin ETF decision and the Crypto Market Structure Bill, are expected.

CPI and PPI Data Could Delay Fed Rate Cuts

Bloomberg analysts believe core inflation is likely to rise to 2.9% year-over-year in May, marking the first uptick of 2025. This comes as the effects of the Trump-era tariffs begin to show, with businesses passing on higher import costs to consumers. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is estimated to have increased by 0.3% in May, its biggest rise in four months. The PPI report will follow a day later, offering further insights into inflation at the producer level. If the data comes in hotter than expected, it could reduce the chances of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates during its policy meeting on June 17–18.

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Bitcoin and Ethereum Stay Calm Despite Big Week

Even with all these macro signals, the crypto market is staying calm. According to Greeks.Live, Bitcoin’s implied volatility has dropped below 40%, while Ethereum’s sits around 65%. This suggests that traders are not expecting major price swings, at least not yet. Both BTC and ETH are holding steady as investors wait for clearer signals from the Fed and inflation data.

Key Crypto Events This Week

Moreover, this week isn’t just about inflation. On June 9, the SEC will host a roundtable called “DeFi and the American Spirit,” discussing how decentralized finance fits into the U.S. financial system. Meanwhile, lawmakers will discuss the Crypto Market Structure Bill, which could define how digital assets are regulated moving forward. A decision on the proposed Litecoin Spot ETF is also expected, though likely to be delayed. Lastly, MicroStrategy plans to raise $1 billion to grow its Bitcoin holdings.

Together, these events make this a critical week for both crypto prices and policy. Investors are now keeping an eye on tariffs with Trump’s trade deal deadline coming up next month. Meanwhile, the Senate is focusing on Trump’s “Big, Beautiful” budget plan, which has drawn criticism from Elon Musk.

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