The next 24 hours will be very important for the crypto market. As all eyes are on two big US events today: the Supreme Court’s ruling on Trump’s tariffs and the latest unemployment data.
The total crypto market cap, which is already struggling near $3.11 trillion, is on the verge of facing massive volatility.
The first major event is the US Supreme Court’s tariff ruling, expected at 10:00 am ET. Last April, President Trump imposed tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% on several goods, calling it “Liberation Day.”
The Court will now decide whether those tariffs are legal.
Experts and prediction markets such as Polymarket estimate a 76% chance that the Court could rule the tariffs illegal. If that happens, the US government may have to return part of the $600 billion already collected.
Such a decision could shift market sentiment quickly, as tariffs are currently seen as helping growth. A ruling against them could make investors cautious, affecting stocks and crypto.
The second key event is the US unemployment report, due at 8:30 am ET. Markets expect unemployment to come in at 4.5% from 4.6% slightly lower than last month.
If unemployment rises, recession fears could strengthen. If it falls, expectations for interest rate cuts may drop even further.
The chance of a January rate cut is already near 13, and strong jobs data could remove that hope completely.
Adding to this, Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiry may increase short-term price swings. According to Deribit, more than $2.2 billion in options are set to expire at 8:00 UTC.
However, Bitcoin alone accounts for around $1.89 billion in BTC options, with a $90,000 max pain level. BTC is currently trading near $90,975.
Meanwhile, Ethereum will see about $396 million in ETH options expiring, with a $3,100 max pain level. ETH is trading close to $3,117, which is very near this key level.
Because of these factors, the next 24 hours could be especially important for crypto traders, with higher volatility likely across the market.
Crypto markets are highly sensitive to global liquidity and risk appetite. When macro events change expectations around growth, inflation, or policy, traders often adjust crypto exposure faster than traditional assets.
Short-term traders and leveraged positions are most affected, as sudden price swings can trigger liquidations. Long-term holders may see volatility but are less likely to face immediate financial impact.
Once uncertainty clears, markets often see sharp moves followed by stabilization. Traders may reposition based on clearer policy and economic signals rather than speculation.
Institutions typically reduce risk ahead of uncertainty and re-enter after outcomes are known. Retail traders are more likely to react during the event, which can amplify short-term price swings.
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