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National Trump Bitcoin Reserve to Launch in 2025? Kalshi Predicts a 50% Chance

Published by
Vignesh S G

On March 6, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an Executive Order establishing a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve and a U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile. This marked a major step in integrating digital assets into the U.S. financial framework.

For now, the reserve only holds Bitcoin seized through criminal and civil forfeiture cases. But many believe this could be the beginning of something much bigger.

Is the U.S. Preparing a Full-Scale National Bitcoin Reserve?

Although limited in scope today, talk is growing around a possible expansion into a full National Bitcoin Reserve. The idea would mirror the structure of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but for digital assets.

Prediction market platform Kalshi currently puts the chances of such a move at 50%. This potential reserve would include Bitcoin not obtained through seizures – and could even involve other cryptocurrencies.

Importantly, the Kalshi contract requires that the reserve be fully functional and operational, not just announced.

Market Sentiment on the Move

Kalshi’s data shows just how much public sentiment has shifted in the past few months:

  • 57.2% probability at the start of 2025
  • 41.2% low on January 9
  • 70.6% peak on March 6 (following Trump’s executive order)
  • 50% as of April 22

This swing reflects growing interest and speculation as the administration takes real action on crypto policy.

Timeline: Trump’s Key Moves on Bitcoin and Crypto

Each of these steps suggests a broader digital asset strategy may be in the works.

What a National Bitcoin Reserve Could Mean

If Trump moves forward with a fully operational National Bitcoin Reserve, it could mark a historic turning point in U.S. economic policy. It would position Bitcoin not just as a financial asset, but as a strategic one.

Such a development could:

  • Enhance investor trust in U.S. crypto policies
  • Accelerate regulatory clarity and institutional adoption
  • Signal America’s leadership in global digital finance

Still, much will depend on how the plan is executed, how it aligns politically, and how other countries respond.

The days of digital assets sitting on the sidelines of U.S. policy may be numbered, and Bitcoin just took one step closer to the main stage.

Vignesh S G

Vignesh is a young journalist with a decade of experience. A proud alumnus of IIJNM, Bengaluru, he spent six years as a Sub-Editor for a leading business magazine, published from Kerala. His interest in futuristic technologies took him to a US-based software company specialising in Web3, Blockchain and AI. This stint inspired him to view the future of journalism through the lens of next generation technologies. Now, he covers the crypto scene for Coinpedia, uncovering a vibrant new world where technology and journalism converge.

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