Bitcoin has finally broken out of its long sideways phase that lasted for weeks between roughly $65,000 and $75,000. Price has now moved into the $77,500–$78,000 zone, shifting the market from consolidation into what looks like an early trend phase. In under two weeks, BTC is up nearly 10%.
Prediction markets are now showing stronger upside conviction. According to The Kobeissi Letter, Bitcoin carries around a 61–62% probability of hitting $90,000 in 2026, while the chance of $100,000 sits near 42–44%. Additionally:
Downside probabilities remain limited but present:
Kalshi data aligns with this structure, showing about a 40% chance of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by the end of 2026, but only a small probability in the near term.
The rally is not happening in isolation. Easing geopolitical tension, especially the extended Iran ceasefire, has improved global risk sentiment. Equities have stabilized, and crypto is benefiting from that rotation back into risk assets. Ethereum is also recovering near $2,400, while XRP and other altcoins are following slowly.
Bitcoin is recovering after a sharp drop from recent highs, but price action remains choppy with no clear breakout yet. It’s hovering near the $80K resistance zone as sentiment slowly improves. $90K and $100K are still long-term possibilities in prediction markets, but not strongly priced in right now, with traders still divided on whether that level is likely in the near term.
The market is bullish again, but not euphoric yet, and that’s typically where stronger trend phases begin. Till then, levels to watch include $73,000 support, with Fed rate cuts and ETF inflows potentially fueling a rally.
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