With Bitcoin hovering well above $100k and altcoins failing at cycle lows, investors are curious if the altcoin season 2025, is still on the cards, or have we missed the boat? It is rightly said that history shows a rhythm in market behavior, while many claim “this cycle is different,” the data says otherwise.
From BTC dominance and institutional inflows to the Altcoin Season Index hitting rock bottom, all signs point to a forthcoming shift in liquidity. In this analysis I take you through crypto analyst Tracer’s thesis on altseason.
It has been disappointing to the marketers that, despite the total market cap sitting at $3.24 trillion, altcoins are still significantly underperforming relative to Bitcoin. Data reveals that most alts remain down 80–90% from their all-time highs. This is all while BTC continues breaking new streaks. The analyst highlights that this discrepancy isn’t new, as in past cycles, altseason only kicked off after Bitcoin concreted its top.
The Altcoin Season Index currently sits at 21/100, deeply into “Bitcoin Season” territory. Historically, these levels have marked the start to capital rotation from BTC into alts once Bitcoin shows signs of topping out.
Institutional behavior has tilted heavily toward Bitcoin. From Strategy’s billion-dollar buys to publicly traded firms and sovereign institutions building BTC treasuries.
Coming to the M2 global money supply, a key liquidity driver, shows a strong correlation with BTC, especially with a 76-day offset. As M2 expands, Bitcoin absorbs the initial liquidity. But when this flow saturates, past actions suggest altcoins often catch the spillover, triggering the true altseason.
The following market indicators are pointing to a classic pre-altseason setup:
Also worth noting is the geopolitical tension with Iran, which has temporarily frozen liquidity. However, such geopolitical dips tend to resolve swiftly and provide golden buying opportunities.
Keen on BTC’s future? Read our Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2025, 2026-2030!
The altcoin season 2025 will start once the Bitcoin dominance drops below 55, volume flows into alts, and the altcoin season index rises above 75.
The current metrics suggest we’re in a prime accumulation phase. History favors those who enter before the crowd, not during euphoric runs.
CoinPedia has been delivering accurate and timely cryptocurrency and blockchain updates since 2017. All content is created by our expert panel of analysts and journalists, following strict Editorial Guidelines based on E-E-A-T (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trustworthiness). Every article is fact-checked against reputable sources to ensure accuracy, transparency, and reliability. Our review policy guarantees unbiased evaluations when recommending exchanges, platforms, or tools. We strive to provide timely updates about everything crypto & blockchain, right from startups to industry majors.
All opinions and insights shared represent the author's own views on current market conditions. Please do your own research before making investment decisions. Neither the writer nor the publication assumes responsibility for your financial choices.
Sponsored content and affiliate links may appear on our site. Advertisements are marked clearly, and our editorial content remains entirely independent from our ad partners.
Speculation about a BlackRock XRP ETF is growing, especially with renewed focus on the firm’s…
The crypto market is moving cautiously today as investors weigh mixed signals from macro trends,…
Is the crypto market preparing for a historic bull run or sliding toward a painful…
The crypto market is waking up again, and the signs are finally pointing in one…
Solana is currently a major focus in the crypto market, thanks to strong institutional interest…
With discounts flying as the crypto market nosedived, “buying the fear” may turn out to…
