This week could shape the path of markets heading into the Federal Reserve’s September meeting. Traders are on edge as key economic reports line up, with The Kobeissi Letter warning that “it’s all about inflation.”
Markets are already betting heavily on a September rate cut, with futures showing a 96–97% probability. Weak labor data just 22,000 jobs added in August—has strengthened that case. Bond yields have dipped, equities are climbing, and gold has surged to fresh highs near $3,588/oz.
The week begins with the BLS 12-month inflation data revision. Think of it as a “report card” on inflation. If numbers are revised higher, it could mean trouble for the Fed—and pressure on Bitcoin and Ethereum. Softer revisions, on the other hand, may trigger a short relief rally in crypto.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) comes midweek. Rising wholesale prices suggest higher consumer costs ahead, which could keep inflation sticky. That’s bad news for risk assets like crypto. A cooler PPI, though, may give BTC and altcoins room to bounce.
The August Consumer Price Index (CPI) lands Thursday, the most influential report for the Fed. At the same time, OPEC releases its monthly update. Tight oil supply could fuel inflation, making Thursday a potential double-whammy day for both stocks and crypto.
The week closes with the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment and inflation expectations surveys. If consumers see prices staying high, it reinforces inflation worries. Weak sentiment could weigh on crypto, while optimism might fuel a late-week rally.
Kobeissi Letter with a track record of more than 370% returns since 2020 emphasizes preparing for volatility. Traders are closely watching bonds, equities, and commodities for early signals of how risk is being priced in.
This week’s reports could set the tone for the rest of the year. Inflation trends, oil prices, and consumer confidence will influence not only the Fed’s decision but also how investors position themselves going into the final quarter. In short: it’s a make-or-break moment for markets navigating uncertainty.
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