This Bitcoin Rally Isn’t What You Think, But Who Is Driving It?

Bitcoin has reached another all-time high. While the market appears strong, analysts and users are debating whether the traditional 4-year cycle theory still holds or if a new era, led by institutions and long-term holders, is taking shape.

Are Classic Market Signals Breaking Down?

Analyst Ki Young Ju recently shared that for years, he has followed a clear pattern: buying when whales (big players) accumulate, and selling when retail investors join in. However, he claims that this pattern was once a reliable indicator for market timing, but it does not work anymore. 

In the last bull run, whales were selling to retail. But this time, he points out that older whales are selling to newer, long-term holders. A lot of these new players are likely institutions. The institutional adoptions have been much bigger than what many had expected.

This time, it’s not just traders that are playing the game; holders have taken over. He notes that he was applying the old cycle framework to a new kind of market. He adds that he called the bull cycle over too early and did not fully recognize how much the structure had changed.

He also apologised for the ones impacted by his precious forecast and committed that he will now focus on delivering more data-driven insights.

Institutions Driving The Rally

Institutional adoption has been the driving force behind this Bitcoin cycle.  Regulated funds and ETFs have bought over 900,000 BTC, way more than what big whales are selling, which has helped keep the price steady. 

Cryptoquant analysts also note that the Bitcoin rally is not due to retail hype, but institutions are leading the way. On-chain data shows retail investors have been selling since early 2023, with their BTC holdings steadily declining. In contrast, large wallets, likely ETFs, funds, or institutions, started accumulating heavily in early 2024.

Google trends show that the interest in “Bitcoin” is still pretty low, with no retail FOMO and hype like in 2021. However, analyst Willy Woo says not to be fooled by the Google trends. He claims that people now already know Bitcoin, and low search does not mean low demand.

Nonetheless, Bitcoin has hit another all-time high and continues to closely follow its historic 4-year cycle.

Bitcoin is down 2% today and is currently trading at $116,578. Altcoin have been rallying lately and moved slightly today even as Bitcoin dropped over 2%. According to expert Benjamin Cowen, altcoins often rally through summer, but he expects money to flow back to Bitcoin by late August. With BTC dominance holding strong around 60%, he sees signs that Bitcoin could take the lead again soon.