The recent crypto pullback may have looked worrying, but Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research, says it was a temporary setback rather than the start of a new bear market. Standard Chartered analyst says Bitcoin’s drop to around $59,000 likely marked the bottom of the cycle and could signal the end of the current crypto winter.
Despite the volatility, Kendrick is maintaining his year-end targets of $100,000 for Bitcoin and $4,000 for Ethereum. He also expects Ethereum to outperform Bitcoin in the near term as market conditions improve.
According to Kendrick, several factors came together to pressure the crypto market over the past few weeks.
One major reason was the wave of selling in spot Bitcoin ETFs. Since mid-May, these investment products have recorded around $5 billion in net outflows, creating significant pressure on Bitcoin prices.
Another factor was the upcoming IPO of SpaceX. Kendrick said some investors likely sold crypto holdings to free up cash and participate in what is expected to be one of the largest public offerings in US history.
The broader macro environment also weighed on risk assets. Rising tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher, which lifted US Treasury yields. As government bonds became more attractive, investors reduced exposure to riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.
Those headwinds are now starting to ease. Softer inflation data and signs of potential progress in negotiations involving Iran have improved market sentiment and helped reduce pressure on oil prices.
While Bitcoin has already recovered above $64,000, Kendrick says three developments could provide further confirmation that the market has found its footing.
He is watching for a return of positive inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, continued declines in oil prices, and another Bitcoin purchase announcement from Strategy led by Michael Saylor.
If those signals appear, stronger institutional demand and improving macro conditions could support the next leg higher for crypto markets.
For now, if you bought BTC around $59,000, then Kendrick’s $100,000 target would mean a gain of about 70% by the end of the year.
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