Sell Bitcoin Now? Trader Warns of Drop to $48K Before May Comeback

Since the US–Iran conflict began, the overall market has been under pressure, and crypto has been hit the hardest. Now, a popular trader, Crypto Jack, is warning investors to sell bitcoin now. 

Bitcoin is showing signs of weakness after failing to break above $75K. And crypto Jack believes Bitcoin could fall to $48K before recovering in May.

Here’s why he thinks a drop could happen soon.

Iran to Skip Peace Talks After U.S. Seizes Iranian Ship

One of the biggest concerns right now is rising tension between the US and Iran. Reports suggest Iran may skip the second round of peace talks scheduled for April 20 in Pakistan, even as US Vice President JD Vance is expected to lead the US delegation.

Tensions increased after the US seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran called a “violation of the ceasefire” and has promised to respond to.

Iran said Tehran may not join the talks unless the US lifts its blockade.

Bank of Japan Dumped $2.86B Liquidity Shock

Beyond geopolitics, financial signals are also turning negative. Just before the US market opened, the Bank of Japan reportedly dumped $2.86 billion in US Treasuries, marking the largest liquidation in 30 years. 

The last time a similar move happened, the stock market dropped nearly 15%, raising fresh fears across global markets.

Massive $53M Bitcoin Short Adds Pressure

There are also signs that large players are reducing risk. Reports suggest that market insiders are offloading large risk positions across US assets, exiting almost everything except oil. 

At the same time, a trader linked to Trump’s circle has reportedly opened a $53 million Bitcoin short at 30x leverage. 

His record is said to be perfect with 10 wins out of 10 trades, but even a small 7% price move against him could wipe out the entire position.

Bitcoin: Key Levels to Watch

From a technical perspective, Crypto Jack believes Bitcoin still has room for a short-term move higher. The liquidation heatmap shows a possible push toward $79K–$80K, especially if buying momentum increases in the near term.

The only major factor that could turn the market bullish, even temporarily, is a US–Iran peace deal. If tensions ease, risk assets like Bitcoin could see a quick relief rally.

However, the overall trend remains cautious. If Bitcoin fails to hold the key $60K support, it could fall further toward the $46K–$52K range. 

Thus, Jack now sees $48K–$50K as a strong re-entry zone.

Why May Could Be A Comeback Phase?

At the same time, Crypto Jack’s main reason for suggesting an exit now and a comeback in May is seasonal performance. Historically, May has delivered an average return of around 8%, with Bitcoin closing in green in 7 out of 13 years. 

He also notes that the second quarter often sees strong momentum, with an average surge of around 58%, making it one of the most important periods in the crypto calendar after a typically weaker phase earlier in the year.