The U.S. Federal Reserve begins its two-day FOMC meeting on March 17, with Chair Jerome Powell set to speak today at 2:30 p.m. ET after the rate decision.
Markets are watching closely, not just for today’s decision, but for any hint of future rate cuts.
The Fed’s benchmark interest rate currently stands at 3.5%–3.75%, and data strongly suggests no change today. As the CME FedWatch tool data also shows a 99% probability that rates will remain unchanged.
Now, all eyes are on Powell’s Speech for a hint of any further rate cut.
Based on recent speeches, Powell is expected to maintain a data-dependent stance, avoiding any clear signal on future rate cuts. In recent meetings, he has followed a “wait and watch” approach, and the same tone is likely today.
Instead of promising rate cuts, he may repeat that decisions will depend on upcoming data like inflation and jobs.
Meanwhile, the recent market data show the economy is slowing, but not enough to push the Fed to act quickly. The recent employment rate has risen slightly to 4.4% from 4.3%, and the economy lost about 92,000 jobs in February, showing some weakness in the job market.
However, oil prices are still close to $100 per barrel, which keeps inflation risks high.
With his term ending on May 23, 2026, Jerome Powell is unlikely to give a clear timeline for rate cuts.
Instead, he is likely to keep a neutral tone, avoid making strong promises, and leave future decisions open based on incoming data and the next Fed chair. This approach supports his goal of a “soft landing” without causing a recession or high inflation.
Earlier, markets expected several rate cuts in 2026. But now, views have changed. Many experts believe cuts could come later in the year, or be limited to just one.
For the crypto market, this is important. If Jerome Powell does not hint at rate cuts, it could keep short-term pressure on Bitcoin and altcoins.
The market recently saw a small relief rally after a period of consolidation, but any bearish signal from the Fed could reverse that move quickly.
Bitcoin is now trading near $74,264, down from its recent high of $76,000. For now, all eyes are on Powell’s tone, not just the decision.
The FOMC meeting today rate decision is due around 2:00 p.m. ET, followed by Jerome Powell’s speech at 2:30 p.m. ET.
If no rate cuts are hinted at, crypto may face short-term pressure. A dovish tone could boost Bitcoin, while a cautious stance may limit gains.
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