Are Donald Trump’s Polymarket Bets ‘Fake’? Whales Reveal the Truth

Published by

Vignesh S G

November 5, 2024

The U.S. presidential election today is unfolding with a unique twist—crypto betting platforms like Polymarket have taken center stage, allowing bettors to wager on the outcome. Currently, bettors on Polymarket show overwhelming support for Republican candidate Donald Trump over Democratic candidate Kamala Harris.

But recent whale activity on the platform raises a big question: Are Trump’s victory odds as promising as they seem? Come, let’s find out.

Are Trump’s Odds Overhyped?

The drama began when Polymarket whale “Larpas” unexpectedly sold nearly $3 million worth of pro-Trump bets just before election day, creating a stir in the market. This sudden sell-off has led many to wonder if the odds are as strong as they appear or if they’ve been inflated.

Looking closely at Polymarket’s dynamics, seasoned observers might not be too shocked by the whale’s exit. Recently, well-known crypto trader and analyst GCR expressed doubts about platforms like Polymarket, suggesting they may struggle to accurately predict odds for right-wing candidates.

This raises the possibility that Trump’s odds could be overstated.

Crypto Expert Warns Against Risky Betting

Reports indicate that Trump’s odds on Polymarket might be artificially high, with as much as 30% of pro-Trump bets thought to be ‘fake’ trades. GCR has warned his followers to be cautious about making hasty, high-risk bets, stating that he exited his positions after capitalizing on initial market movements.

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Polymakert Betting on US Election: An Overview

Despite the controversy, Trump’s odds remain robust. Currently, about 60.1% of Polymarket bettors believe he’ll win the presidency, compared to 40% for Harris. Additionally, most bettors think Trump will win four out of six crucial swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.

As crypto-backed election betting gains popularity, concerns about market accuracy and the influence of high-profile traders grow.

Is the market playing its own game? What is the reality? We’ll have to wait and see.

Vignesh S G

Vignesh is a young journalist with a decade of experience. A proud alumnus of IIJNM, Bengaluru, he spent six years as a Sub-Editor for a leading business magazine, published from Kerala. His interest in futuristic technologies took him to a US-based software company specialising in Web3, Blockchain and AI. This stint inspired him to view the future of journalism through the lens of next generation technologies. Now, he covers the crypto scene for Coinpedia, uncovering a vibrant new world where technology and journalism converge.