With the U.S. presidential election just a week away, the odds increasingly favor Republican candidate Donald Trump, who is projected to win over Democratic rival Kamala Harris. Predictions from sources like Polymarket suggest the electorate is leaning towards Trump.
But how could a Trump victory impact different markets, especially crypto? Ethereum traders, in particular, are curious if a political shift could trigger changes in the sector.
Let’s dive into the possible scenarios.
Several forecasting platforms, including Polymarket, The Economist, Silver Bulletin, FiveThirtyEight, and RealClearPolitics, are giving Trump the edge. Their latest predictions place his chances at 54% (The Economist), 53.3% (Silver Bulletin), and 52.9% (FiveThirtyEight). RealClearPolitics reports an even higher probability of 61.3%.
Polymarket, a popular prediction market, gives Trump an even stronger advantage, estimating a 66.1% chance of victory, while Kamala Harris’s probability sits at 33.9%. The platform also suggests Trump could win all six swing states: Arizona (73%), Georgia (74%), Nevada (64%), Pennsylvania (62%), Wisconsin (58%), and Michigan (53%).
The Dynamics Have Changed!
What’s noticeable this election cycle is the shift in how predictions are made. In both 2016 and 2020, major forecasting platforms underestimated Trump’s chances. This time, however, voter sentiment seems more straightforward, with clearer signals pointing to his favor.
The price of Trump Media & Technology Group Corp, a US-based media and technology company owned by Trump, was just $16.16 at the start of this month. Now it stands at 38.95, indicating a massive surge of 141.02% this month.
Trump-themed meme coins have also benefited. For example, MAGA, a popular Trump-inspired coin, has gained 29.32% this month.
In contrast, the broader cryptocurrency market has had a more mixed performance. Among the top ten cryptocurrencies, only Bitcoin, USDC, Dogecoin, and Tron have posted gains over the last 30 days, while the rest have declined. In the meme coin market, only a few coins—such as Dogecoin, Dogwifhat, Popcat, and Cat in a Dog’s World—have shown growth.
The altcoin market, which excludes the top ten cryptocurrencies, has struggled to maintain its share. At the beginning of the month, altcoin dominance was 10.27%, but it has since dropped to 9.26%, indicating a 10.9% decline over the past 30 days.
Ethereum had a volatile month. Starting at $2,601.77 on October 1, it fell to $2,350 by October 3. The market faced difficulties recovering between October 4 and 13. However, by October 14, Ethereum had managed to climb past its starting price. It reached a peak of $2,746 on October 20 but has since fallen by nearly 10%, with prices now around $2,500. The market is still struggling to regain its footing.
While Trump’s rising odds might suggest significant market changes, traders should be cautious. Speculating based on election forecasts carries risks, and the crypto market’s response may not always align with political trends.
With election day drawing closer, the situation remains uncertain, and investors need to stay alert to shifting dynamics.
The clock is ticking, and the market’s next big move could be just around the corner. Will the election results fuel a crypto rally or a reset? Time will tell.
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