Trump Leads US 2024 Election Predictions: What It Means for Crypto

Published by

Vignesh S G

October 11, 2024

Over 56% of bettors on Polymarket, a popular decentralized prediction market, are betting on Donald Trump to defeat Kamala Harris in the upcoming U.S. Presidential election on November 5, 2024. With this political trend emerging, how could a Trump victory shape the future of the cryptocurrency market?

Polymarket 2024 Election Forecast Overview

Currently, Trump is backed by more than 56% of bettors, while Harris trails with just 43.4%. This shows a clear 13% lead for Trump. He’s predicted to win in four of the six crucial swing states: Arizona (66%), Georgia (63%), Pennsylvania (55%), and Michigan (52%). Harris is ahead only in Nevada, where 52% of bettors believe she will win, compared to 48% for Trump.

Harris’s Campaign Lift After Biden Steps Down

Kamala Harris officially entered the race on July 21, 2024, after Joe Biden withdrew from the campaign. Her entry energized the Democratic Party, which had been struggling against Trump’s growing popularity. In the early days, Trump had strong support, with over 60% of bettors expecting him to win. However, Harris briefly overtook Trump in mid-August, with 54% support on August 16. By the end of the month, Trump had regained his lead, and by October 7, the gap between them had grown to 13%.

Trump’s Shift on Crypto: A Key Factor?

Trump’s change in stance on cryptocurrency could have a significant impact. Once critical of the crypto space, Trump is now promoting a crypto-friendly administration, aiming to remove unnecessary regulations. His victory could lead to a bullish market, especially since Q4 has historically been positive for Bitcoin. In Q4 2023, Bitcoin recorded a 56.6% return, and since 2011, Bitcoin has shown positive Q4 results eight times.

November, in particular, has often delivered strong returns.

What Happens if Harris Wins? Potential Impact on Crypto

But what if Harris wins? Her victory would likely mean a continuation of the current administration’s regulatory approach, which many in the crypto sector view as restrictive. If Harris’s win leads to negative market sentiment, we could see a short-term dip in the market, with potential shocks lasting for weeks.

Could a Trump victory be the catalyst for a crypto boom, or will Harris’s policies keep the market in check? Let us know what you think!

Vignesh S G

Vignesh is a young journalist with a decade of experience. A proud alumnus of IIJNM, Bengaluru, he spent six years as a Sub-Editor for a leading business magazine, published from Kerala. His interest in futuristic technologies took him to a US-based software company specialising in Web3, Blockchain and AI. This stint inspired him to view the future of journalism through the lens of next generation technologies. Now, he covers the crypto scene for Coinpedia, uncovering a vibrant new world where technology and journalism converge.