Bitcoin just had its best week in a while. The ceasefire rally, the CPI relief, $73,000 briefly touched. After weeks of grinding losses, it finally feels like something has changed.
But one analyst who publicly called the top six months ago is not buying the narrative shift. According to Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, the data does not yet support calling a bottom – and the 4-year cycle is still pointing to October.
Cowen’s case is not based on sentiment or macro headlines. It is based on three specific on-chain conditions that have marked every previous Bitcoin cycle bottom and none of which have triggered yet.
First, the supply in profit/loss indicator has not crossed.
“All prior lows occur after they cross, not before,” Cowen said in a recent video. “And we haven’t seen that cross yet.”
Second, the MVRV Z-score has not gone below zero. Every previous bear market bottom has required this reset. It has not happened.
Third, Bitcoin has not traded below both its realized price, currently around $54,000, and its balance price, which sits near $39,000. Historically, every cycle bottom has involved Bitcoin touching both levels.
Cowen identifies $78,000 to $79,000 as the current bear market resistance band – the level where the former bull market support has flipped to overhead resistance. Until Bitcoin closes convincingly above that level, the structure of a bear market remains intact.
Tactical rallies, he notes, are entirely normal within bear markets and do not signal a trend reversal.
The 4-year cycle has run November to November in 2021-2022 and December to December in 2017-2018. Cowen’s base case is October to October this time, putting the most likely low in Q4 2026.
He gives it 75% probability that the bottom is still ahead.
“I would say there’s like a 75% chance that the Bitcoin bottom is still in the future,” he said. “Maybe a 25% chance that it’s already in.”
His implied price target for a full reset sits around $39,000 – the balance price, and roughly a 70% decline from the $126,000 peak, consistent with every prior bear market being slightly less severe than the last.
Cowen is not permanently bearish. He acknowledges the 25% scenario where the low is already in and says he would revise his view if Bitcoin has not made a new low by October. The thesis is data-dependent, not directional.
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