Metaplanet Stock Undervalued Despite Bitcoin Surge – Says Investor Richard Byworth

Metaplanet is quickly becoming one of the most talked-about stocks in Japan. It’s the country’s only real stock market play on Bitcoin, and right now, it looks like it’s still undervalued—even after a huge recent price jump.

According to Richard Byworth, a well-known crypto investor, Metaplanet’s current price is still low compared to the amount of Bitcoin it holds. At $10.82 per share (in its U.S. OTC version, MTPLF), the stock is trading at just over 5 times its net asset value based on Bitcoin holdings. For comparison, MicroStrategy (MSTR), a U.S. company that also holds a lot of Bitcoin, trades at only 1.75 times its Bitcoin value.

Short Sellers Are Getting Trapped

Metaplanet is the most shorted stock in Japan, with nearly 30% of its shares sold short. But because the stock price has been rising sharply, short sellers are stuck.

The stock has hit its daily price limit up for three days in a row on the Tokyo exchange. This means it can’t be sold at a higher price during trading hours, which is making it even harder for shorts to cover their positions.

Some short sellers are now facing losses of more than 300%, unable to buy shares back to close their bets. When the limits are lifted, there could be a big price move—known as a short squeeze—that pushes the stock much higher.

Strong Bitcoin Buying and Macro Trends

Metaplanet has been buying Bitcoin aggressively, giving it a Bitcoin yield that’s over 11 times higher than MicroStrategy’s based on recent purchases. This shows the company is growing its Bitcoin holdings fast.

Global bond markets are showing signs of trouble. U.S. and Japanese government bond yields are rising, which often leads central banks to lower rates again. Lower interest rates tend to be good for Bitcoin and related stocks.

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Why Japanese Investors Like Metaplanet

Holding Bitcoin directly in Japan can be expensive because capital gains are taxed as regular income at rates up to 55%. But investing in Metaplanet through Japan’s NISA accounts lets investors avoid capital gains tax on up to about $25,000 a year.

This tax advantage is attracting many retail investors in Japan, since Metaplanet is currently the only easy way for them to get exposure to Bitcoin via the stock market.

What’s Next for Metaplanet?

Byworth suggests that if Metaplanet’s price doubled to around $21, it would be valued similarly to MicroStrategy on a Bitcoin asset basis. Even then, it would still be below its highest valuation in the past.

With short sellers stuck and strong buying interest from investors, the stock could see more big moves soon.

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