JPMorgan Asset Management has added Bitcoin to its long-term return forecasts for the first time in the 31-year history of its annual report. The bank expects Bitcoin to deliver 10% annual compound returns over the next 10 to 15 years, beating U.S. stocks, gold and real estate, despite its high volatility.
In its 2027 Long Term Capital Market Assumptions report, released on October 20, JPMorgan projected Bitcoin’s compound annual return at 10%. The report also estimates an arithmetic return of 20.9%, alongside annualized volatility of 55%.
The forecast puts Bitcoin ahead of several traditional investments. JPMorgan expects U.S. large cap stocks to return 7.5% annually, while gold is projected to deliver 5.5%. U.S. real estate investment trusts (REITs) have a forecast of 8.2%, but still fall below Bitcoin’s estimate.
These projections suggest that JPMorgan sees stronger long term return potential in Bitcoin than in these major asset classes.
Despite the positive outlook, Bitcoin remains far more volatile than traditional assets in JPMorgan’s projections. The bank estimates Bitcoin’s annualized volatility at 55%, compared with 17.2% for gold. This means Bitcoin’s price can move much more sharply.
Bitcoin’s recent price history shows how sharply it can move. In 2023, it reached around $44,700, with annualized volatility of about 43%. In 2024, it crossed $100,000 for the first time, hitting roughly $106,142, while volatility stood at around 46%.
In 2025, Bitcoin climbed to a record high of $126,223 before falling to around $80,600, with volatility at approximately 42%.
In 2026, it rose to about $97,962 before pulling back to around $81,570, showing how quickly its price can change.
Despite its return forecast, JPMorgan has not included Bitcoin in its standard sample portfolio allocations. The report’s estimates do not mean the bank is recommending that every investor add Bitcoin to their portfolio.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan also highlighted the figures, noting that Bitcoin’s projected 10% annual compound return exceeds the estimates for U.S. stocks and gold.
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