JPMorgan Asset Management has added Bitcoin to its long-term return forecasts for the first time in the 31-year history of its annual report. The bank expects Bitcoin to deliver 10% annual compound returns over the next 10 to 15 years, beating U.S. stocks, gold and real estate, despite its high volatility.
In its 2027 Long Term Capital Market Assumptions report, released on October 20, JPMorgan projected Bitcoin’s compound annual return at 10%. The report also estimates an arithmetic return of 20.9%, alongside annualized volatility of 55%.
The forecast puts Bitcoin ahead of several traditional investments. JPMorgan expects U.S. large cap stocks to return 7.5% annually, while gold is projected to deliver 5.5%. U.S. real estate investment trusts (REITs) have a forecast of 8.2%, but still fall below Bitcoin’s estimate.
These projections suggest that JPMorgan sees stronger long-term return potential in Bitcoin than in these major asset classes.
The forecast stands out given JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon’s long history of criticism of Bitcoin. In 2017, he called Bitcoin a “fraud.”
A year later, he said he regretted making that comment and acknowledged that blockchain technology was real. In 2024, he compared Bitcoin to a “pet rock,” but also said he would defend people’s right to buy it.
In 2025, JPMorgan said it would allow clients to buy Bitcoin, although the bank would not hold it for them.
Despite the positive outlook, Bitcoin remains far more volatile than traditional assets in JPMorgan’s projections. The bank estimates Bitcoin’s annualized volatility at 55%, compared with 17.2% for gold. This means Bitcoin’s price can move much more sharply.
Bitcoin’s recent price history shows how sharply it can move. In 2023, it reached around $44,700, with annualized volatility of about 43%. In 2024, it crossed $100,000 for the first time, hitting roughly $106,142, while volatility stood at around 46%.
In 2025, Bitcoin climbed to a record high of $126,223 before falling to around $80,600, with volatility at approximately 42%.
In 2026, it rose to about $97,962 before pulling back to around $81,570, showing how quickly its price can change.
Despite its return forecast, JPMorgan has not included Bitcoin in its standard sample portfolio allocations. The report’s estimates do not mean the bank is recommending that every investor add Bitcoin to their portfolio.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan also highlighted the figures, noting that Bitcoin’s projected 10% annual compound return exceeds the estimates for U.S. stocks and gold.
CoinPedia has been delivering accurate and timely cryptocurrency and blockchain updates since 2017. All content is created by our expert panel of analysts and journalists, following strict Editorial Guidelines based on E-E-A-T (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trustworthiness). Every article is fact-checked against reputable sources to ensure accuracy, transparency, and reliability. Our review policy guarantees unbiased evaluations when recommending exchanges, platforms, or tools. We strive to provide timely updates about everything crypto & blockchain, right from startups to industry majors.
All opinions and insights shared represent the author's own views on current market conditions. Please do your own research before making investment decisions. Neither the writer nor the publication assumes responsibility for your financial choices.
Sponsored content and affiliate links may appear on our site. Advertisements are marked clearly, and our editorial content remains entirely independent from our ad partners.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s admission that he was unfaithful to his wife has raised a…
STX’s outlook for 2027 depends mainly on whether institutional Bitcoin staking keeps growing, because every…
Asian technology stocks bounced back strongly on Tuesday, following a powerful rebound on Wall Street…
David Schwartz has responded to growing anger in the XRP community. As frustrated holders demanded…
Despite Ethereum (ETH) price plunging by more than 20% so far in the fourth quarter…
Although XRP has faced six consecutive weeks of bearish sentiment, on-chain data shows rising demand…
