All eyes in the crypto market are locked on the Jackson Hole Summit today, where U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak at 10 AM ET. His remarks could decide the next big move for Bitcoin and altcoins, as traders weigh fears of hawkish policy against signs of a weakening economy.
Could this be the trigger for Bitcoin and altcoins to rally?
Over the past week, the crypto market has experienced heavy selling. Bitcoin slipped from its highs and altcoins followed, largely because traders expect Powell to stick with a tough stance on interest rates.
That belief has pushed the probability of a September rate cut down to around 69.5%, according to CME Fed watch tool.
But under the surface, a different picture is forming. Since the Fed’s last meeting, U.S. jobs data has taken a turn for the worse. The unemployment rate has risen to 4.2%, jobless claims are climbing, and even previous employment figures are being revised lower.
Despite all these challenges, inflation is still above the FED’s 2% target. This gives the Fed more room to consider easing policy if economic conditions continue to worsen.
At the same time, corporate bankruptcies have hit their highest level since 2020, showing that businesses are struggling under tight monetary conditions.
If Powell hints at a possible rate cut in September, analysts say it could spark a significant short squeeze, forcing bearish traders to cover their positions and fuel a sharp rally in Bitcoin towards $150k.
On the other hand, even if Powell keeps a hawkish tone, much of that is already priced into the market, meaning the downside could be limited.
Experts believe Powell’s hawkish tone could drag Bitcoin down toward the $110,000 mark.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver his highly anticipated speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium today at 10:00 a.m. ET
In November 2021, President Joe Biden renominated Powell for a second term as Fed Chair, which the Senate confirmed in May 2022.
Markets price a 69.5% chance of a September rate cut, depending on economic data.
A hint of easing could trigger a short squeeze, potentially pushing Bitcoin toward $150K.
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