For years, crypto investors have relied on one idea more than almost any other: the Bitcoin four-year cycle. Buy after the crash, wait for the halving, sell into the bull market, repeat. Simple. Predictable. Almost like a cheat code.
Popular crypto analyst Lark Davis recently revisited this idea and raised an uncomfortable question: What if the four-year cycle was never as real as we thought?
The four-year cycle theory comes from one real event: the Bitcoin halving.
Every four years, Bitcoin’s new supply gets cut in half. Early on, this mattered a lot. Bitcoin started at zero supply, so reducing new coins had a huge effect. Less supply, growing demand, higher prices, the logic was easy to understand.
And for a long time, it seemed to work perfectly. Big rallies followed halvings. Big crashes followed peaks.
Here’s the uncomfortable part.
More than 95% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist has already been mined. What’s left will be released slowly over more than a century. Today, Bitcoin’s supply grows by only about 1% per year, which is actually less than gold.
At this point, cutting that already tiny supply in half doesn’t change much.
So the big question becomes: If the halving barely changes supply anymore, why should it still move price the same way?
When you zoom out, Bitcoin’s major highs and lows line up surprisingly well with global liquidity and business cycles, not just halvings.
In fact, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high before the 2024 halving — something that had never happened before. That alone suggests the old rules are changing.
Bitcoin also shows a strong connection to global money supply and economic activity. When liquidity rises, Bitcoin tends to do well. When it tightens, Bitcoin struggles.
Another strange detail: the most recent Bitcoin all-time high came with almost no excitement. That doesn’t mean the cycle disappeared completely, it means it may be weaker, diluted, and less reliable than before.
Right now, Bitcoin looks technically weak, and sentiment is low. Attention has shifted to AI, robotics, and tech stocks. At the same time, the macro picture is shifting. Interest rates are coming down. Liquidity is slowly returning. The environment that once pushed Bitcoin higher may be setting up again.
That doesn’t guarantee a rally tomorrow. But it shows the story isn’t over.
Most forecasts expect Bitcoin to stay bullish in 2025, with potential highs around $175K if strong demand, ETF inflows, and adoption continue.
While some long-term forecasts are extremely bullish, reaching $1 million by 2030 is speculative. Current credible estimates suggest a potential high around $900,000 by 2030.
Yes, Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a digital inflation hedge. Its fixed supply contrasts with expanding fiat currencies, attracting investors seeking to preserve purchasing power.
Bitcoin could trade significantly higher in 10 years, with some forecasts expecting it to reach several hundred thousand dollars if adoption keeps growing.
CoinPedia has been delivering accurate and timely cryptocurrency and blockchain updates since 2017. All content is created by our expert panel of analysts and journalists, following strict Editorial Guidelines based on E-E-A-T (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trustworthiness). Every article is fact-checked against reputable sources to ensure accuracy, transparency, and reliability. Our review policy guarantees unbiased evaluations when recommending exchanges, platforms, or tools. We strive to provide timely updates about everything crypto & blockchain, right from startups to industry majors.
All opinions and insights shared represent the author's own views on current market conditions. Please do your own research before making investment decisions. Neither the writer nor the publication assumes responsibility for your financial choices.
Sponsored content and affiliate links may appear on our site. Advertisements are marked clearly, and our editorial content remains entirely independent from our ad partners.
Story Highlights The live price of Hedera crypto is . Hedera Price prediction highlights HBAR…
As 2026 kicks off, XRP finds itself at a crucial crossroads. While the token continues…
Fresh on-chain data has stirred discussion around XRP’s short-term outlook after major exchanges recorded a…
Bernstein analysts say Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have likely bottomed. The call marks…
With the start of 2026, PEPE has captured market attention with a massive surge of…
Cardano (ADA) has managed to draw back traders' focus after a year marked by significant…
