Is the 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Dead? Analysts Warn of Major Shift

There is a growing debate around whether the classic 4-year Bitcoin halving cycle is still relevant or if it has become obsolete. 

For years, people have believed that after each halving, the price follows a predictable pattern. But with global economic trends playing a bigger role, many say Bitcoin is reacting to the wider market, and the old pattern is losing its power. 

Let’s find out what the experts have to say. 

The 4-Year Halving Cycle Might Be Over

Bitcoin expert Pierre Rochard is the latest one to weigh in. He says that it’s “more likely than not” that the classic 4-year halving cycles are over. He points out that halvings don’t really affect the trading supply anymore since 95% of Bitcoin is already mined. 

Most coins entering the market today come from early holders selling, while demand is driven by retail investors, wealth platforms offering Bitcoin ETFs, and companies adding BTC to their balance sheets.

Crypto author Jason Williams also points out that the top 100 Bitcoin treasury companies now hold nearly 1 million BTC. “This is why the Bitcoin 4-year cycle is over,” he said.

Institutional Forces and Macro Trends Are Now in Control

Just recently, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan explained why the old halving pattern is fading. 

He explains that the halving’s influence on the market is getting weaker. At the same time, lower interest rates now work in crypto’s favor, regulatory clarity is improving, and institutional adoption is accelerating. Together, these factors are reducing the chances of extreme boom-and-bust swings.

Hougan expects these long-term forces to define Bitcoin’s future. He sees 2026 not as a frantic super-cycle, but as a period of steady, sustained growth.

“I think it’s more ‘sustained steady boom’ than super-cycle,” he said. 

Not everyone agrees…

But there are always opposing views. Crypto analyst CRYPTO₿IRB argues that the rise of ETFs actually strengthens the cycle by aligning crypto with the traditional finance world, which also works in multi-year patterns.

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What Bitcoin Price Trends Reveal

Crypto expert and YouTuber Benjamin Cowen notes that Bitcoin is on track to close August with gains, following a familiar post-halving pattern. 

He points out that historically, Bitcoin tends to rise in July and August, dip in September, then climb again toward the market peak in Q4, before heading into a bear market. If this plays out again, it could mean that while the mechanics of the cycle are changing, its seasonal tendencies remain.

Takeaway for Investors

It seems like the old halving cycle is no longer the sole driver of Bitcoin’s market moves, but it has not completely disappeared either. Supply shocks are less significant, and macroeconomic conditions and institutional demand play a bigger role now. 

For long-term investors, the focus should be on key fundamentals such as ETF inflows, regulation, and broader economic trends. 

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