Whales are taking a bigger share of Binance’s measured transaction flow, and the timing isn’t exactly reassuring. The Binance whale ratio’s 100-day simple moving average (SMA) reached 0.513 on November 6, its highest level since September 2017. Meanwhile, BTC slipped from roughly $77,500 on October 31 to $75,800.
The underlying Exchange Whale Ratio nearly reached 1.0 on October 31. That meant large-holder transactions accounted for almost all measured exchange flow that day.
The 100-day average then rose from 0.481 on October 31 to 0.513 on November 6. This increase came as BTC struggled, falling 11.3% over one month despite remaining 17% higher over three months.
There’s an obvious complication. Binance suffered a hot-wallet hack on October 29, with approximately $6.2 billion to $6.4 billion reportedly stolen.
That incident may have affected large transfers during the same period. So, treating the rising whale ratio as straightforward evidence of deliberate selling would be premature. The available figures don’t establish what those large transactions represented.
US job openings reached 7.52 million in September, according to JOLTS data released November 3. The November 6 NFP report was also scheduled during this period.
The dollar index stood at 101.56, roughly unchanged over one month. These macro indicators provide background, but they don’t directly measure Binance whale activity. Any connection remains speculative.
One possible explanation is that transfers linked to the hack or reactions to macroeconomic data lifted the whale share. Neither explanation is verified.
For now, the Binance whale ratio shows rising large-holder activity alongside a weaker BTC price. But the series still needs verification, and the short observation window doesn’t establish whether whales are selling, repositioning or simply moving funds.
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