Crypto investors have been growing impatient as altcoins continue to lag behind Bitcoin. For months, crypto traders have been asking the same question: Is altcoin season dead, or just delayed? According to several well-known market experts, the Altcoin season may not be gone at all; it simply hasn’t started yet.
Here’s when the altcoin season is going to start.
Raoul Pal, a prominent macro investor, says the biggest mistake investors are making is assuming the old four-year cycle to repeat.
According to him, debt maturity was extended during 2021–2022, which quietly stretched the cycle by roughly one year. This change reduced liquidity in the expected “banana zone,” delaying the usual altcoin rally.
Because of this delay, Pal believes the 4-year crypto cycle has stretched into a five-year structure. In his view, the key economic indicator to watch is the ISM index. Historically, when ISM rises above 50, strong rallies in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and later altcoins tend to follow.
Speaking directly about when the altcoin season could arrive, Pal said;
“Our best guess remains well into 2026, probably around Q2. That’s when the liquidity cycle is most likely to peak.”
Most importantly, Pal has pushed back against claims that crypto is entering a long bear market. Instead, he argues the market is still building toward its next major move.
Pal’s outlook is no longer a lonely one. Market strategist Tom Lee has also pointed out that when the ISM index moves back above 50, it has historically aligned with powerful moves in Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Meanwhile, this supports Pal’s view that crypto’s biggest gains may still lie ahead.
Popular crypto trader Ash Crypto shared a chart showing the crypto market without the top 10 coins. The chart suggests prices are sitting on strong, long-term support, similar to levels seen before past altcoin rallies.
Ash says major altcoin runs usually begin only after the U.S. Federal Reserve ends quantitative tightening (QT). When QT stops, money slowly returns to the market, which helps risk assets like altcoins move higher.
He also explains that altcoin rallies do not start easily. Prices often move sideways or fall first, with sharp drops and liquidations that shake out weak traders.
According to Ash, the current market structure looks similar to 2020. If this pattern repeats, it could point to an altcoin rally starting around 2026.
Looking at the Altcoin Season Index, it is currently at 37, showing that the market is still far from a true altcoin season.
Yes. Extended periods of Bitcoin dominance often lead to higher volatility and lower liquidity in smaller tokens, which can amplify losses during pullbacks. Investors may need to adjust position sizing, focus on liquidity, or reassess exposure to highly speculative altcoins until broader market conditions improve.
Altcoins tend to benefit more from rising liquidity because they are generally higher-risk assets. If financial conditions ease, capital often flows first into Bitcoin and large-cap tokens, then rotates into smaller projects as investors seek higher returns.
Smaller blockchain projects, decentralized finance protocols, and early-stage token investors typically see the largest percentage gains during altcoin rallies. Exchanges, market makers, and retail traders can also experience increased volumes and activity as broader participation returns to the market.
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