How Will Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP React if CLARITY Act Passes or Fails?

The CLARITY Act has become a major regulatory focus for the crypto industry. However, Alex Tapscott, CEO of CMCC Global Capital Markets, said prediction markets may be overstating its chances of passing. While markets currently assign the bill roughly 47% to 50% odds of becoming law, Tapscott said it may struggle to secure enough bipartisan support in the Senate. 

Even so, he does not expect failure to automatically trigger a major crypto market correction.

1. The Market Has Not Priced In

Tapscott repeatedly stressed that the CLARITY Act’s passage has not been priced into broader financial markets.

“I would say it’s not priced in at all in the markets,” he said. While prediction markets may view the outcome as a coin flip and social media may expect approval, “the actual markets are saying that the odds are still pretty low.”

That could limit the shock from a failed bill because investors are not heavily positioned for its passage. Instead, Tapscott said the approval could deliver a bigger surprise.

“If it does pass, there’s a huge surprise to the upside potential,” he said.

He pointed to the GENIUS Act as a comparison. After its passage, crypto-related companies including Coinbase, Circle and Robinhood reportedly gained around 25% to 30% within seven to 14 trading days. Bitcoin moved less because the market had increasingly anticipated the outcome.

2. Crypto Adoption Continues Without CLARITY

Blockchain adoption has continued despite years of regulatory uncertainty. Tapscott cited Solana, saying it has become a technology platform for institutions, enterprises, financial firms and startups. He argued that Solana can process more transaction volume than the combined foreign exchange, fixed-income and equity markets, while its roughly $45 billion market cap remains modest compared with many slower-growing public companies.

He also pointed to Ethereum and Hyperliquid as examples of blockchain ecosystems building new applications and businesses rather than simply putting traditional assets on-chain.

3. Adoption Could Eventually Break the Four-Year Cycle

Tapscott acknowledged crypto’s historical four-year cycle but said real adoption could become a stronger market driver.

“If there’s widespread adoption of these platforms and they start generating more fee revenue, and that fee revenue accrues to stakers, then the value of those assets should go up,” he said.

He added that crypto is “an industry that has some control over its own fate.”

Why Passage Could Still Trigger a Rally

While failure may not cause a major correction, passage could create a significant upside surprise, especially for regulated U.S. crypto companies. Tapscott said clearer rules could encourage companies to invest billions in crypto without fearing future regulatory reversals.

He also believes clarity could enable tokenized equity and new forms of ownership. “You can say what the thing is. This is equity,” he said, potentially opening the door to a new era of crypto growth.