With SpaceX set to begin trading on Nasdaq on Friday, one market analyst is watching two assets simultaneously and seeing warning signs in both. XRP is flashing short-term bearish signals, the broader crypto market is under pressure, and the SpaceX IPO is pulling capital away from risk assets at precisely the wrong moment.
XRP Is Heading Toward $1.09
The technical picture for XRP is deteriorating in the short term. The token recently failed to hold above its five-period exponential moving average, which has flipped from support to resistance and is actively pushing the price lower. The analyst tracking the setup expects XRP to retest the $1.09 level within the next two days, describing the current zone as a “nasty little zone” where every attempted recovery is getting sold into.
A double bottom at $1.09 remains possible and could provide a short-term bounce, but the broader structure does not support optimism. Bitcoin is following an almost identical pattern and if it closes below its key support line, the analyst believes a drop toward $50,000 becomes the next realistic target. Given how closely XRP tracks Bitcoin during bear phases, that scenario would likely pull XRP down with it.
The SpaceX Connection
The IPO is directly relevant to both dynamics. Orders for SpaceX shares close on Wednesday, with institutions typically placing their allocations in the 24 to 48 hours before listing. That means fresh selling pressure across equities and crypto is arriving at the same time the technical setup for both is at its most fragile.
XRP Is Approaching $1: The Last Buying Opportunity?
XRP has already dropped 71% from its cycle high of $3.10, currently trading around $1.05. If the price breaks below $1.00 and reaches the $0.88 to $0.90 zone, that would represent a full 75% drawdown from the top, a decline consistent with both the 2018 and 2022 bear markets. In 2018, XRP dropped 96% before rallying 1,600%. In 2022, an 85% drawdown preceded an 1,100% recovery. Going back further, a 60% drop in 2016 preceded a 60,000% gain.
Analyst Zach Rector described a sub-dollar XRP as potentially the final opportunity to accumulate below $1 before the next cycle begins.
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