If you’re involved in crypto, you’re probably familiar with its unpredictability. One day, prices soar, and the next, they drop. According to Gareth Nicholson, Chief Investment Officer at Nomura, 2025 could bring some major disruptions to the global financial markets.
In his comprehensive 100-page report for the coming year, Nicholson identifies several “Gray Swan Events”—rare occurrences that are unlikely but could have a huge impact if they happen. Let’s take a look at these events and how they could affect the crypto market next year.
“Gray Swan Events” are unexpected incidents that have a low chance of happening, but if they do, their effects would be massive. Nicholson highlights several of these potential events in his 2025 outlook. Here’s a breakdown of what could be in store for the crypto market.
NVIDIA is more than just a tech giant—it’s at the core of crypto mining. If its value drops sharply, miners might struggle to get the hardware they need. This could slow down blockchain networks and leave smaller cryptocurrencies exposed to attacks. If miners can’t access affordable tech, it could also lower confidence in the entire crypto ecosystem. A crash like this could lead to panic selling, and as a result, Bitcoin and altcoins may tumble.
If the carry trade unwinds, investors may start pulling their funds from the crypto market, causing a liquidity shortage. This could lead to panic selling, driving prices down. While some might still see Bitcoin as a safe haven during such times, others may view it as a high-risk asset and pull back from investments.
This would create a volatile situation, with Bitcoin’s future uncertain, depending on how it’s viewed—either as “digital gold” or a speculative investment.
If U.S. Treasury yields rise above 6%, safer investments might seem more attractive, reducing demand for higher-risk assets like Bitcoin. This shift could make it harder for crypto to maintain its appeal. However, if higher yields lead to a weaker dollar, Bitcoin might gain traction as a hedge against inflation. The way people see Bitcoin—either as a store of value or a risky investment—will determine its future in this scenario.
If the U.S. economy unexpectedly slows down in 2025, it could trigger problems for global markets. With less capital available for investment, markets would likely experience downturns, and the crypto market could take an even harder hit. Bitcoin and altcoins could suffer significant price drops as investors pull back from risky assets in favor of safer options.
Geopolitical conflicts often cause market instability, driving investors toward safer assets like gold. This trend could hurt crypto, but Bitcoin might stand out in such times. Due to its decentralized nature, Bitcoin could appeal to people in regions facing financial restrictions, offering a way to preserve wealth. Although geopolitical tensions may lead to short-term drops in the market, Bitcoin could benefit in the long run as people look for alternatives to traditional finance.
China’s economic stimulus plans are always closely watched, and if they fall short of expectations, it could dampen investor sentiment. A lackluster performance could lead to lower confidence in global markets, including the crypto space. Instead of driving Bitcoin’s price up, this scenario could result in increased volatility and investor hesitation, putting downward pressure on prices.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are now part of the larger financial ecosystem. Events like an NVIDIA crash or rising Treasury yields could bring both challenges and new opportunities.
Crypto’s future will depend on how well it adapts to these changes. By preparing yourself, you can make the most of whatever happens in the coming year.
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