Galaxy Research Drops CLARITY Act Approval Odds From 75% to 60%

Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, has lowered his estimate for the chances of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 from 75% to 60%, highlighting growing concerns over the Senate’s crowded schedule and unresolved policy issues.

Senate Calendar Becomes a Major Roadblock

Thorn said the biggest challenge facing the crypto market structure bill is no longer political support but time. According to him, next week’s Senate agenda is expected to be dominated by FISA-related matters after a failed reauthorization vote. The Senate has already lost valuable time dealing with other legislative priorities, leaving less room for crypto legislation.

He also pointed out that key issues surrounding lawmaker ethics rules and illicit finance provisions remain unresolved. The lack of progress on these topics has further complicated the path forward for the bill.

Despite lowering his odds, Thorn said he remains optimistic about the legislation’s eventual prospects, though he warned that timing has become increasingly important and expectations could shift quickly as the Senate calendar evolves.

Why the CLARITY Act Matters

The CLARITY Act is widely viewed as the most important crypto market structure bill currently under consideration in Washington. Its primary goal is to establish clear jurisdiction between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Under the proposal, digital assets classified as commodities would fall under CFTC oversight, while securities would remain under SEC regulation. The distinction would affect how tokens are issued, how exchanges operate, and what compliance requirements projects must meet.

Supporters argue that clear federal rules would reduce regulatory uncertainty, encourage innovation in the U.S., and prevent crypto firms from moving operations overseas.

July 4 Target in Question?

Thorn’s revised outlook comes as some lawmakers remain hopeful. Earlier this year, Cynthia Lummis identified July 4 as a target date to advance market-structure legislation through the Senate.

However, Thorn’s latest assessment reflects growing concerns that legislative priorities outside crypto could delay that timeline. He emphasized that his estimate reflects scheduling challenges rather than a lack of support for the bill itself.

For crypto investors and industry participants, the downgrade serves as a reminder that while momentum for regulatory clarity remains strong, the path to final approval may take longer than many had hoped.