Bitcoin is about to close 2025 almost exactly where it started.
After riding a strong bullish wave for most of the year, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $126,080 on October 6. ETF inflows were strong, regulatory progress improved sentiment, and on-chain activity picked up. But the rally didn’t last.
A mix of macro disappointments, leverage wipeouts, and heavy whale selling cooled the market, pushing BTC back into the $80,000-$90,000 range by December.
Galaxy Digital says that while 2025 may end quietly, it helps lay the groundwork for what comes next.
In its annual report, Galaxy Digital took a cautious stance on Bitcoin’s near-term outlook. While the firm expects Bitcoin to reach $250,000 by the end of 2027, it admits that 2026 is far less predictable.
“2026 is too chaotic to predict, though Bitcoin making new all-time highs in 2026 is still possible,” said Alex Thorn, Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy Digital.
According to Galaxy, Bitcoin still hasn’t fully regained bullish momentum. Until BTC can hold above the $100,000-$105,000 range, downside risk remains on the table.
That uncertainty is clearly showing up in derivatives markets. Options traders are pricing nearly equal odds of Bitcoin trading at $70,000 or $130,000 by June 2026. By the end of 2026, expectations stretch even wider from $50,000 to $250,000.
“These wide ranges reflect uncertainty about the near term,” Thorn said, pointing to broader risks like monetary policy shifts, AI capital spending, and the U.S. midterm elections.
Galaxy also reviewed its 2025 Bitcoin calls and several missed the mark.
Bitcoin did not cross $150,000 or test $185,000 as expected. While BTC briefly became one of the top risk-adjusted performers earlier in the year, it’s now on track to finish 2025 with a negative Sharpe ratio. Spot Bitcoin ETFs also fell short of the $250 billion AUM target, reaching about $141 billion instead.
Despite the setbacks, Galaxy believes Bitcoin is maturing into a more traditional macro asset. Volatility has declined, and downside protection now costs more than upside bets – a shift usually seen in established markets like gold.
“2026 could be a boring year for Bitcoin, and whether it finishes at $70k or $150k, our bullish outlook… is only growing stronger,” Thorn said.
For Bitcoin, stability may be the real signal of progress.
Bitcoin reached an all-time high but ended the year near its starting price, showing reduced volatility and signaling maturation as a macro asset rather than pure speculation.
Traders price wide ranges for 2026, from $50,000 to $250,000, reflecting uncertainty from macro factors like monetary policy, AI spending, and U.S. elections.
Lower volatility and higher cost of downside protection suggest Bitcoin is becoming a more stable, institutional-friendly asset, laying groundwork for long-term growth.
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