The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision today at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM ET. Markets widely expect a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut, with traders assigning nearly 85% probability to this outcome. Because of that, analysts believe the actual rate cut itself is unlikely to move markets in a major way.
Instead, attention is firmly on Powell’s speech and what it signals about rates, liquidity, and economic outlook beyond 2025.
Bitcoin and equities have rallied over the past two days, leading many to believe the expected 25 bps cut is already reflected in prices.As analyst Michaël van de Poppe noted, when a rate cut is fully expected, it rarely becomes a bullish catalyst on its own. If Powell delivers no surprises, markets could even see a “sell the news” reaction.
What matters most in this FOMC meeting are three factors that will shape market direction into 2026:
Together, these signals will determine how much liquidity markets can expect next year and beyond, a key driver for crypto prices.
This meeting comes with added uncertainty. Due to the government shutdown, two months of CPI inflation data are unavailable, leaving the Fed without a full picture of recent inflation trends.
This uncertainty increases the chances of higher volatility, especially if Powell emphasizes caution or data dependency.
Bitcoin’s technical structure also adds risk. BTC is currently showing a negative correlation with stocks, meaning:
Van de Poppe highlights $92,000 as a critical resistance level. A rejection here increases the chances of a deeper correction.
If Powell remains hawkish and questions future rate cuts, Bitcoin could see a sharp pullback toward the $78,000–$82,000 range, before a possible quick reversal. A clearly dovish signal, however, could keep the breakout scenario alive.
Bearish Scenario
A repeat of December 2024’s hawkish tone could turn any Santa rally into a Santa dump, similar to how altcoins fell 60–80% after that meeting.
The Fed rate decision is at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM ET.
Hawkish signals could trigger a pullback to $78k–$82k, while dovish guidance may support a breakout past $92k.
Two months of CPI data are missing due to the government shutdown, leaving the Fed with an incomplete view of inflation trends.
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