FOMC Meeting May 7: Will Powell’s Speech Trigger Bitcoin Crash or Rally?

The Federal Reserve’s upcoming FOMC meeting on May 7, 2025, is drawing serious attention from crypto investors. With interest rate decisions and Powell’s speech on the agenda, the market is on edge.

After a long pause following aggressive hikes in 2022–2023, the Fed began cutting rates in late 2024, bringing the current rate to 4.25%–4.50%. Now, with a 94% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady, investors are watching closely. 

Despite strong job numbers, inflation remains slightly high, clouding the timeline for future cuts. Experts say more rate cuts may come later in 2025, but there’s still no clear roadmap.

Volatility Ahead of Powell Speech

Market analyst King Baldwin shared his pre-FOMC outlook on X, pointing to the high odds of no change in interest rates. However, he warns that a hawkish tone from the Fed could send Bitcoin down to a support zone between $91,500 and $92,000.

If Jerome Powell Jerome Powell   Jerome Powell is a U.S.-based fintech specialist and the current head of the U.S. Federal Reserve. He was named the 2020 Forbes Person of the Year in Crypto award as a result of the high price gains in cryptocurrencies.   He has neither supported nor downvoted the concept of cryptocurrency adoption in the country. However, his expertise mainly talks about formulating fair and friendly crypto polices in the country.   Quick Facts   Full name Jerome Hayden "Jay" Powell Birth 04-02-1953, Washington, D.C., United States Nationality American Education Georgetown University Law Center Known for Banking Expert   Jerome Powell - Career Highlights & Events   2018: He was designated head of the Federal Reserve.   2021: Stressed the need for strict regulation while acknowledging the potential of stablecoins.   2022: Research on the economic impact of U.S. CBDC was initiated.     Finance signals a dovish stance or hints at near-term cuts, Bitcoin could rebound toward the $100,000 mark. Baldwin notes that Core PCE inflation stands at 2.6%, and recession odds are at 60%—both factors keeping investors cautious.

All eyes are now on Powell’s press conference, with hopes for a June rate cut signal.

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No Rate Cut Expected, Says Michaël van de Poppe

Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe believes a rate cut is highly unlikely at this FOMC meeting. He suggests the Fed will stay cautious due to sticky inflation. A surprise cut would shock markets.

Adding to the pressure is Donald Trump Donald Trump   Donald J. Trump is a US-based business tycoon,  pro-crypto politician, and 47th (present) President of the United States. He comprehends the significance and needs of the modern fintech world, and people look up to him as a dominant pro-crypto politician.   Once doubtful about Bitcoin's dominance, he said in a tweet in 2019, “I am not a fan of Bitcoin", but now has a significant amount of cryptocurrency holdings in his pool. He has also signed an Executive Order to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, which highlights his commitment to the future of cryptocurrency.   Quick Facts   Full name Donald John Trump Birth 14-06-1946, New York, United States Nationality American Education BS from the University of Pennsylvania Famous For Business, Politics   Donald Trump - Career Highlights & Events   2016 – Elected as the 45th President of the United States from the Republican Party.   2017 – Signed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, impacting investment environments   2019 – Slammed crypto king Bitcoin on X, calls it "not money".   2025 – A gala party was hosted by him for the top 220 Trump meme coin holders.   President who continues to push for cuts amid rising tariffs. But the Federal Reserve is expected to focus on inflation control rather than bow to political pressure.

Crypto Market Braces for Powell’s Speech

Trump’s aggressive stance on trade and monetary policy is stirring debate about the Fed’s independence. With fiat volatility rising, many investors are turning back to Bitcoin as a hedge.

With Powell’s speech scheduled for May 7, both traditional and crypto markets are bracing for volatility. Analysts are urging traders to avoid leverage and expect short-term turbulence.

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