Bitcoin is hovering above $108,000, gaining over 2% in the past 24 hours. The crypto market overall is holding a solid $3.38 trillion valuation. But as investors gear up for the next big Federal Reserve meeting on June 18, many are starting to temper their expectations, especially when it comes to interest rate cuts.
For months, traders expected the Fed to begin cutting rates by summer. But recent job data changed the mood. Hiring remains strong, and inflation is still running above the Fed’s comfort level. That gives the central bank little reason to ease up on its current policy.
The CME FedWatch Tool now shows a 99.9% chance the Fed will keep rates steady in June, with just a 0.1% chance of a 25 basis point cut. Looking to July, the odds of a rate cut sit at just 14.5%. Back in May, those chances were much higher, showing how much sentiment has shifted in just a few weeks.
The pressure is building on the Fed. The European Central Bank just cut its interest rates by 25 basis points. And Donald Trump is calling for a much more aggressive 100 bps rate cut in the U.S., saying it would be “rocket fuel” for the economy. He’s also criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell and hinted that Kevin Warsh could replace him.
Still, the Fed remains cautious. Officials are watching how tariffs and inflation will affect the economy before making any big moves. So for now, it looks like interest rates will stay between 425–450 basis points for the foreseeable future.
Crypto markets are in a bit of a mixed mood. Bitcoin and Gold are showing strength, and some traders are shifting out of the U.S. dollar into riskier assets like crypto. According to Sergei Gorev from Youhodler, this trend is helping keep Bitcoin’s price elevated.
But not all signs are bullish. Gorev also points out that Bitcoin’s chart is showing a potential “Head and Shoulders” pattern, which, if it plays out, could pull prices down to around $92,000.
With the FOMC meeting coming up and inflation data on the way, the crypto market is walking a fine line between optimism and caution.
The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) sets U.S. monetary policy, including interest rates. The next meeting is June 17-18, 2025, where markets widely expect rates to remain steady given current economic data.
If the Fed holds rates steady (or raises them), it can dampen risk appetite for assets like crypto, leading to range-bound prices or slight dips. Lower rates generally boost crypto by making borrowing cheaper and increasing market liquidity.
Short-term, crypto can see volatility based on the Fed’s “hawkish” (cautious) or “dovish” (easing) tone. Long-term, a “higher for longer” rate scenario might limit investment, but any easing signals could be a catalyst for price increases.
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