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FOMC Meeting June 18: Crypto Market Prepares for No FED Rate Cut Decision

Published by
Debashree Patra and Sohrab Khawas

Bitcoin is hovering above $108,000, gaining over 2% in the past 24 hours. The crypto market overall is holding a solid $3.38 trillion valuation. But as investors gear up for the next big Federal Reserve meeting on June 18, many are starting to temper their expectations, especially when it comes to interest rate cuts. 

No FED Rate Cuts—At Least Not Yet

For months, traders expected the Fed to begin cutting rates by summer. But recent job data changed the mood. Hiring remains strong, and inflation is still running above the Fed’s comfort level. That gives the central bank little reason to ease up on its current policy.

The CME FedWatch Tool now shows a 99.9% chance the Fed will keep rates steady in June, with just a 0.1% chance of a 25 basis point cut. Looking to July, the odds of a rate cut sit at just 14.5%. Back in May, those chances were much higher, showing how much sentiment has shifted in just a few weeks.

Trump, ECB Push for Cuts—but Fed Holds Its Ground

The pressure is building on the Fed. The European Central Bank just cut its interest rates by 25 basis points. And Donald Trump is calling for a much more aggressive 100 bps rate cut in the U.S., saying it would be “rocket fuel” for the economy. He’s also criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell and hinted that Kevin Warsh could replace him.

Still, the Fed remains cautious. Officials are watching how tariffs and inflation will affect the economy before making any big moves. So for now, it looks like interest rates will stay between 425–450 basis points for the foreseeable future.

How Crypto Is Reacting

Crypto markets are in a bit of a mixed mood. Bitcoin and Gold are showing strength, and some traders are shifting out of the U.S. dollar into riskier assets like crypto. According to Sergei Gorev from Youhodler, this trend is helping keep Bitcoin’s price elevated.

But not all signs are bullish. Gorev also points out that Bitcoin’s chart is showing a potential “Head and Shoulders” pattern, which, if it plays out, could pull prices down to around $92,000.

With the FOMC meeting coming up and inflation data on the way, the crypto market is walking a fine line between optimism and caution.

FAQs

What is the FOMC meeting, and when is the next one?

The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) sets U.S. monetary policy, including interest rates. The next meeting is June 17-18, 2025, where markets widely expect rates to remain steady given current economic data.

How does the FOMC’s interest rate decision affect the crypto market?

If the Fed holds rates steady (or raises them), it can dampen risk appetite for assets like crypto, leading to range-bound prices or slight dips. Lower rates generally boost crypto by making borrowing cheaper and increasing market liquidity.

What are the short-term and long-term crypto market reactions to FOMC decisions?

Short-term, crypto can see volatility based on the Fed’s “hawkish” (cautious) or “dovish” (easing) tone. Long-term, a “higher for longer” rate scenario might limit investment, but any easing signals could be a catalyst for price increases.

Debashree Patra and Sohrab Khawas

Fun-loving and cheerful, a passionate blockchain and crypto writer who knows no boundary…connect if you share the same passion. With 10+ years of writing experience, I am a Crypto Journalist by chance, exploring, and learning all the dynamics of the sci-fi action-filled crypto world. Currently, focusing on cryptocurrency news and price data. With a passion for research and challenging my capabilities, I am slowly getting into the crypto arena to bring new insights every day.

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